Coastal Hazard Forecasting Services

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The ETWS-ETWCH was involved in several collaborative projects to develop coastal hazard forecasting services, including the European Space Agency (ESA) storm surge project eSurge, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) North Indian Ocean storm surge project, and the WMO Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project.

More details on these initiatives are given below. Several other key coastal hazard forecasting services activities were carried out under the umbrella of Capacity Development. Details on those activities are given here.

Partnership to support Research and Development: European Space Agency (ESA) Storm Surge Project (eSurge)

Recommendations and Actions of the first JCOMM Symposium on Storm Surges (JCOMM2007SSS) served as a baseline for the design of this project, which looked at how Storm Surge forecasting systems and applications could be improved through the innovative use of the ocean, land and atmospheric satellite Earth Observation (EO) data. The high-level project objectives were defined by ESA as:

To develop, demonstrate and validate the latest advanced techniques for retrieving high-resolution information on Total Water Level Envelope (TWLE), wind speed and waves in the coastal zone from Earth Observation (EO) measurements that address storm surge requirements.
To further develop and provide validated coastal altimetry products (based on mature and existing altimeter retracking systems) tuned to storm surge events in a number of user-defined Areas of Interest (AOI).
To provide access to other more general EO data products (e.g. SST, microwave wind and wave products and moderate resolution optical data for coastal inundation mapping) together with NWP, NOP and other socio-economic data that characterize ETC and TC storm surge case study events in a number of user-defined Areas of Interest (AOI).
To develop an extensive and open-access database (called the eSurge Event Analysis and Repository Service, SEARS) of EO and other data for historical and contemporary storm surge event (SEV) case studies, with interface tools to access and use eSurge data products, in a number of user-defined AOI.
To provide a demonstration NRT service of user-defined EO data products and eSurge services in support of operational and experimental forecasting and warning systems.
To design and implements, together with the eSurge user community, a number of reanalysis data assimilation and validation experiments for historical and contemporary storm surge events that demonstrate the impact of EO data on storm surge applications.
To encourage and assist the storm surge community to fully exploit the potential for satellite data for storm surge applications through dedicated training activities.

This project was developed in close collaboration with the storm surge modelling and forecasting community, including the JCOMM Expert Team on Waves and Storm Surge (ETWS). The initial project requirements were defined at a User Consultation Meeting (UCM) held in Venice in September 2009, and further refined through discussions with potential users. Additional User Surveys and User Consultation Meetings were held over the project’s 30 month lifetime to ensure the community’s feedback throughout the project.
The European Space Agency (ESA) awarded a contract for eSurge to a consortium consisting of Logica (UK), NOC (UK), DMI (Denmark), CMRC (Ireland) and KNMI (NL).

Support for regional capacity development: North Indian Ocean (NIO) Storm Surge Project

As part of efforts to support regional capacity development, UNESCO/IOC established a pilot project to improve storm surge predictability by community models, in view of enhanced support for coastal hazard and management issues. This project was successfully launched for the North Indian Ocean, thanks to support from the Republic of Korea and India. At the first expert advisory workshop in New Delhi, India (SSIndia, July 2009), the Advisory Group on enhancing the forecasting capabilities for North Indian Ocean Storm Surges, mainly composed of ETWS members working closely with the regional modelling group of the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (IIT Delhi), provided guidance in consolidating the mid-term plan for model improvement.

The objectives and goals of this project were developed following the recommendations of the first JCOMM Scientific and Technical Symposium on Storm Surges (JCOMM2007SSS).

During the first Advisory workshop, experts in storm surge modelling;

reviewed performance of the current operational storm surge forecasting model (IIT-D Model) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) region;
addressed requirements for upgrading and improving model performance, in terms of enhanced observations, operation for storm surge forecasting, research requirements, and capacity development;
set up the medium-term and long-term technical work plan for the project on improving storm surge forecasting capabilities.

Based on input from the advisory group, a 3-year work plan was agreed upon by the Expert Advisory Group and IIT Delhi expert team, to improve the predictability of the IIT-D Storm Surge model. Priorities were set up and agreed upon in view of enhancing storm surge predictability through the IIT-D Storm Surge Model, taking into account; 1) ongoing plans and activities in the North Indian Ocean region; 2) timeline and work plan for IIT model upgrade, and; 3) feasibility of each recommendation.

The progress of this project was reviewed by the global/regional community at the second advisory workshop (SSIndia2, February 2011). During this workshop, the IIT-Delhi working group demonstrated the enhanced model’s performance in hindcast/operational mode, and moreover, provided a forum for discussion on the regional development and applications of the upgraded IIT-D model, with storm surge experts from the NIO countries. The workshop also decided on the future course of action in view of collaborating and linking with related international programmes and projects, such as the Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) and the eSurge project which the IOC of UNESCO were supporting and participating in. Linkages with other regional projects/programmes were also deliberated and finalized.

WMO Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP)

The JCOMM Storm Surge Symposium (Seoul, 2007) recognized that, for coastal inundation warning and coastal management applications, it is the Total Water Level Envelope (TWLE) at a given location and time which is required. TWLE is the total water level envelope resulting from the combination of storm surge, high tide, wave setup, wave run-up, and for some regions, precipitation and river flow. Following on the recommendations from the Storm Surge Symposium, in order to build improved operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation from combined extreme waves, surges and river flooding events, the WMO Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) was initiated jointly by JCOMM and WMO Commission for Hydrology (CHy). In the context of cross-cutting capacities, the project supported countries to establish collaboration and regular communication between scientists, forecasters, national meteorological/hydrological services and institutional end-users, to meet users' requirements and enhance response to coastal inundation risks. See details of the CIFDP, and the ongoing Coastal Inundation Forecasting Initiative (CIFI).

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