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WWRP Forecast Verification Research

Forecast Verification Research

 

Mission

  • To plan and implement the verification component of WWRP;
  • To serve as a focal point for the development and dissemination of new verification methods for WWRP and EPAC, as required;
  • To facilitate and encourage training and dissemination of information on verification methodologies;
  • To take into account the needs of users so as to ensure the relevance of the practice of forecast verification;
  • To facilitate the development and application of improved diagnostic verification methods to assess and enable improvement of the quality of weather forecasts, including forecasts from numerical weather and climate models;
  • To encourage the sharing of observational data for verification purposes;
  • To encourage greater awareness in the research community of the importance of verification as a vital part of numerical and field experiments rather than an "afterthought";
  • To promote collaboration among scientists conducting research on various aspects of forecast verification as well as with model developers and forecast providers; and
  • To collaborate on forecast verification with the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) and WCRP and in coordination with CBS.

Working Group Members

 

  • Co-Chair: Caio COELHO, CPTEC
  • Co-Chair: Marion MITTERMAIER, UKMO

 

  • Barbara BROWN, NCAR
  • Barbara CASATI, Environment Canada
  • Jing CHEN, CMA
  • Manfred DORNINGER, University of Vienna
  • Thomas HAIDEN, ECMWF
  • Stephanie LANDMAN, SAWS
  • Chiara MARSIGLI, ARPA
  • Yuejian ZHU, NCEP

News

2nd International Verification Challenge – Seeking the Best New Verification Metrics Making Use of Non-Traditional Observations

 

Do you have an idea for using non-traditional observations to verify forecasts? If the answer is yes, we'd like to hear from you!

Forecast verification is evolving beyond traditional metrics for basic weather variables to make use of many new sources of data to assess forecast quality. This additional information gives people greater confidence to use the forecasts in their decision making.

Research shows that impact-based forecasts and warnings are more effective than traditional weather forecasts and warnings in prompting people to take action, but we are only just starting to quantify the impact of the weather on human activities and use this information to evaluate forecasts. The advent of social media and the ease of sharing photos and other data from smart phones and home weather stations means that citizens can now contribute relevant information for assessing forecasts and warnings. Weather and climate sensitive industries also have a strong interest in measuring the utility of forecasts and warnings for their business, which means translating the forecasts into user-relevant variables (e.g. energy output, crop yield, aircraft departure rates, etc.) that can be verified against industry measurements.

To encourage the development of verification approaches making use of new sources and types of observations, the World Meteorological Organization's Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) is conducting a challenge to develop and demonstrate new forecast verification metrics using non-traditional observations. The contest is in support of the WWRP projects on High Impact Weather, Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S), and Polar Prediction (PPP).

The challenge will consider all applications of meteorological and hydrological forecasts, deterministic and ensemble, that are relevant to the public and user sectors including operational forecasting, agriculture, energy, emergency management, transport, etc. The metrics can be quantitative scores or diagnostics (e.g., diagrams), but they must use non-traditional observations to be considered for the prize.

The JWGFVR warmly encourages all interested researchers and practitioners to participate.

 

Please download the entry form HERE

 

The deadline for entries is 30 April 2021. For more information please contact verifchallenge@bom.gov.au.

Last updated 10th August 2020


Meetings

Upcoming