WWRP Forecast Verification Research
Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR)
JWGFVR plans and facilitates the development and application of improved diagnostic verification methods to assess and enable improvement of the quality of weather forecasts, including forecasts from numerical weather and climate models. It also collaborates on forecast verification with the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). JWGFVR will engage in the plans and implementation of the verification component of WWRP projects from the outset.
Working Group Members
- Co-Chair: Barbara CASATI, Environment Canada
- Co-Chair: Caio COELHO, CPTEC/INPE
- Raghavendra ASHRIT, NCMRWF
- Jing CHEN, CMA
- Manfred DORNINGER, University of Vienna
- Eric GILLELAND, NCAR
- Thomas HAIDEN, ECMWF
- Stephanie LANDMAN, SAWS
- Chiara MARSIGLI, DWD
- Marion MITTERMAIER, UKMO
2nd International Verification Challenge – Seeking the Best New Verification Metrics Making Use of Non-Traditional Observations
Do you have an idea for using non-traditional observations to verify forecasts? If the answer is yes, we'd like to hear from you!
Forecast verification is evolving beyond traditional metrics for basic weather variables to make use of many new sources of data to assess forecast quality. This additional information gives people greater confidence to use the forecasts in their decision making.
Research shows that impact-based forecasts and warnings are more effective than traditional weather forecasts and warnings in prompting people to take action, but we are only just starting to quantify the impact of the weather on human activities and use this information to evaluate forecasts. The advent of social media and the ease of sharing photos and other data from smart phones and home weather stations means that citizens can now contribute relevant information for assessing forecasts and warnings. Weather and climate sensitive industries also have a strong interest in measuring the utility of forecasts and warnings for their business, which means translating the forecasts into user-relevant variables (e.g. energy output, crop yield, aircraft departure rates, etc.) that can be verified against industry measurements.
To encourage the development of verification approaches making use of new sources and types of observations, the World Meteorological Organization's Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) is conducting a challenge to develop and demonstrate new forecast verification metrics using non-traditional observations. The contest is in support of the WWRP projects on High Impact Weather, Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S), and Polar Prediction (PPP).
The challenge will consider all applications of meteorological and hydrological forecasts, deterministic and ensemble, that are relevant to the public and user sectors including operational forecasting, agriculture, energy, emergency management, transport, etc. The metrics can be quantitative scores or diagnostics (e.g., diagrams), but they must use non-traditional observations to be considered for the prize.
The JWGFVR warmly encourages all interested researchers and practitioners to participate.
The deadline for entries is 30 April 2021. For more information please contact firstname.lastname@example.org.