WMO El Niño/La Niña Updates

Latest WMO El Niño/La Niña Update

The 2023/24 El Niño event is ending. Since its peak during boreal winter, sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific have steadily weakened. The latest forecasts from WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts give equal chances (50%) of ENSO-neutral conditions or a transition to La Niña during June-August 2024. Slightly later during July-September, La Niña conditions are more likely than not, with around 60% chance, while ENSO-neutral is estimated with around 40% chance. During August-October and September-November of 2024, there is a 70% chance of La Niña prevailing, with a 30% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions. The likelihood of El Niño redeveloping is negligible during this time. Historically, seasonal forecast models at this time of year are known to have relatively low skills, commonly known as the Northern Hemisphere "spring predictability barrier", and therefore these ENSO forecasts should be interpreted with caution. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks, as needed.

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months and provide updated outlooks, as needed. Read more >>

An archive of all WMO El Niño/La Niña Updates issued so far, is available here below:


El Niño/La Niña Background

El Niño La niña

Research conducted over recent decades has shed considerable light on the important role played by interactions between the atmosphere and ocean in the tropical belt of the Pacific Ocean in altering global weather and climate patterns. During El Niño events, for example, sea temperatures at the surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become substantially higher than normal. In contrast, during La Niña events, the sea surface temperatures in these regions become lower than normal. These temperature changes are strongly linked to major climate fluctuations around the globe and, once initiated, such events can last for 12 months or more. The strong El Niño event of 1997-1998 was followed by a prolonged La Niña phase that extended from mid-1998 to early 2001. El Niño/La Niña events change the likelihood of particular climate patterns around the globe, but the outcomes of each event are never exactly the same. Furthermore, while there is generally a relationship between the global impacts of an El Niño/La Niña event and its intensity, there is always potential for an event to generate serious impacts in some regions irrespective of its intensity.

Forecasting and Monitoring the El Niño/La Niña Phenomenon

The forecasting of Pacific Ocean developments is undertaken in a number of ways. Complex dynamical models project the evolution of the tropical Pacific Ocean from its currently observed state. Statistical forecast models can also capture some of the precursors of such developments. Expert analysis of the current situation adds further value, especially in interpreting the implications of the evolving situation below the ocean surface. All forecast methods try to incorporate the effects of ocean-atmosphere interactions within the climate system.

The meteorological and oceanographic data that allow El Niño and La Niña episodes to be monitored and forecast are drawn from national and international observing systems. The exchange and processing of the data are carried out under programmes coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization.

WMO El Niño/La Niña Update

WMO El Niño/La Niña Update is prepared on a quasi-regular basis (approximately once in three months) through a collaborative effort between WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) as a contribution to the United Nations Inter-Agency Task Force on Natural Disaster Reduction. It is based on contributions from the leading centres around the world dealing with this phenomenon. The contributors include:

  • African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD)
  • Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Centre (APCC)
  • Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)
  • Australian Centre for Sustainable Catchments of the University of Southern Queensland
  • Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) – the Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency of Indonesia
  • Centro Internacional para la Investigación del Fenómeno El Niño (CIIFEN)
  • China Meteorological Administration (CMA)
  • Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and National Weather Service (NWS) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States of America
  • Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) project of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
  • Comisión Permanente del Pacífico Sur (CPPS)
  • Consortium for Capacity Building (CCB), University of Colorado, USA
  • El Comité Multisectorial encargado del Estudio Nacional del Fenómeno El Niño (ENFEN) of Peru
  • European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
  • Fiji Meteorological Service
  • India Meteorological Department (IMD)
  • Indian Institute of Science (IISc)
  • IGAD (Inter Governmental Authority on Development) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC)
  • Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia e Hidrologia (INAMHI) of Ecuador
  • International Monsoons Project Office (IMPO)
  • International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)
  • Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
  • Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)
  • Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS)
  • Météo France
  • Met Office in the United Kingdom (UKMO)
  • National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) of the United States of America
  • National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) of New Zealand
  • Southern African Development Community Climate Services Centre (SADC-CSC)
  • Tasmanian Institute of Agricultural Research (TIAR, a Joint Venture between the University of Tasmania and the Tasmanian Government, Australia)

Archive of WMO El Niño/La Niña Updates

The following is the archive of WMO El Niño/La Niña Updates, including the latest one, prepared through a collaborative effort between the WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) as a contribution to the United Nations Inter-Agency Task Force on Natural Disaster Reduction. They have been prepared based on contributions of many National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and other agencies/experts. Please see each update for the specific contributions.


May 2024 mai 2024 mayo 2024
February 2024 février 2024 febrero 2024
October 2023 octobre 2023 octubre 2023
June 2023 juin 2023 juno 2023
April 2023 avril 2023 abril 2023
February 2023 février 2023 febrero 2023
November 2022 novembre 2022 noviembre 2022
August 2022 août 2022 agosto 2022
May 2022 mai 2022 mayo 2022
February 2022 février 2022 febrero 2022
November 2021 novembre 2021 noviembre 2021
September 2021 septembre 2021 septiembre 2021
May 2021 mai 2021 mayo 2021
October 2020 octobre 2020 octubre 2020
August 2020 août 2020 agosto 2020
May 2020 mai 2020 mayo 2020
February 2020 février 2020 febrero 2020
November 2019 novembre 2019 noviembre 2019
August 2019 août 2019 agosto 2019
May 2019 mai 2019 mayo 2019
February 2019 février 2019 febrero 2019
November 2018 novembre 2018 noviembre2018
September 2018 septembre 2018 septiembre 2018
June 2018 juin 2018 junio 2018
March 2018 mars 2018 marzo 2018
December 2017 décembre 2017 diciembre 2017
October 2017 octobre 2017 octubre 2017
July 2017 juillet 2017 julio 2017
April 2017 avril 2017 abril 2017
February 2017 février 2017 febrero 2017
October 2016 octobre 2016 octubre 2016
July 2016 juillet 2016 julio 2016
May 2016 mai 2016 mayo 2016
February 2016 février 2016 febrero 2016
November 2015 novembre 2015 noviembre2015
September 2015 septembre 2015 septiembre 2015
June 2015 juin 2015 junio 2015
March 2015 mars 2015 marzo 2015
December 2014 décembre 2014 diciembre 2014
September 2014 septembre 2014 septiembre 2014
June 2014 juin 2014 junio 2014
April 2014 avril 2014 abril 2014
January 2014 janvier 2014 enero 2014
October 2013 octobre 2013 octubre 2013
June 2013 juin 2013 junio 2013
March 2013 mars 2013 marzo 2013
November 2012 novembre 2012 noviembre 2012
September 2012 septembre 2012 septiembre 2012
June 2012 juin 2012 junio 2012
May 2012 mai 2012 mayo 2012
February 2012 février 2012 febrero 2012
November 2011 novembre 2011 noviembre 2011
September 2011 septembre 2011 septiembre 2011
May 2011 mai 2011 mayo 2011
January 2011 janvier 2011 enero 2011
October 2010 octobre 2010 octubre 2010
July 2010 juillet 2010 julio 2010
March 2010 mars 2010 marzo 2010
December 2009 décembre 2009 diciembre 2009
August 2009 août 2009 agosto 2009
August 2004 août 2004 agosto 2004
March 2004 mars 2004 marzo 2004
October 2003 octobre 2003 octubre 2003


Past WMO El Niño/La Niña Updates in English only