WWRP Predictability, Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting





PDEF aims to advance dynamical meteorology and predictability research, and their application to ensemble forecasting, promoting the quantification of forecast uncertainty, and the development of ensemble applications and their transition into operations.

  • PDEF should promote research related to predictability/dynamics of the WWRP projects, such as for phenomena in the polar regions, events on a sub-seasonal time scale (e.g., MJO, Monsoon, Atmospheric River), and severe weather events (e.g., heavy precipitation).
  • PDEF should promote research related to ensemble forecasting of the WWRP projects such as the design of ensemble prediction systems, the quantification of forecast uncertainty and the applications of ensemble forecasting including calibration and post-processing.
  • PDEF should promote the use of ensemble predictions including in developing and least developed countries and regions through a collaboration with Infrastructure and Services Technical Commissions.

Working Group Members


  • Co-Chair: Judith BERNER, NCAR
  • Co-Chair: Laure Raynaud, Meteo France
  • Mio MATSUEDA, University of Tsukuba
  • Xuguang WANG, University of Oklohoma
  • Helen Ann TITLEY, UK Met Office
  • Lam HOANG, National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF)
  • Sergey FROLOV, NOAA
  • Sarah Jane-LOCK, ECMWF
  • Thando NDARANA, University of Pretoria