22nd Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-22)
Lao People's Democratic Republic hosts 22nd Forum of ASEANCOF
The recently published State of the Climate in Asia 2023 Report reveals record-breaking temperatures with increased frequency of hazards such as floods and droughts in the region. In particular, Southeast Asia has emerged as a hotspot for the impacts brought on by the changing climate. WMO, has been supporting Members in the region to strengthen their climate services through projects such as the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) Initiative Cambodia and Lao PDR. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) allow countries to collaboratively develop consensus-based seasonal climate outlooks and related information on a regional scale.
The 22nd session of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF) saw climate experts from nine ASEAN countries convene in Vientiane, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) for the first in-person Forum since 2019. It was supported by WMO through the CREWS Cambodia and Lao PDR project and the UK Met Office-led Weather and Climate Information Services (WISER) Asia Pacific Programme. The Forum’s outlook and its activities contribute significantly to one of the key roles of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), which is to conduct climate and seasonal predictions for the region through pooling the expertise of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of WMO Member States in both Regional Associations (RAs) II (Asia) and V (South-West Pacific).
In line with the Forum’s collaborative efforts, recent analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and atmospheric indicators show ENSO-neutral conditions, with predictions of La Niña developing during June-July-August (JJA) 2024 and continuing through the year. A weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) might also form but is expected to be short-lived.
The onset of the Southwest monsoon season has been or is expected to be near average for much of Mainland Southeast Asia, apart from Thailand where the onset is later than average. The onset for much of the Insular Southeast Asia has been or is expected to be near average. Based on model predictions, the strength of the Southwest monsoon is predicted to be near average over most of the Southeast Asia.
During JJA 2024, tropical cyclone frequency is predicted to be below average around the Philippine Sea and the Bay of Bengal, and near average around South China Sea.
Above-normal rainfall is predicted over northern Myanmar, parts of Cambodia and parts of the equatorial region, including Brunei Darussalam and the middle part of East Malaysia. Near- to above-normal rainfall is predicted over southern Thailand, the western part of East Malaysia, and the southern Philippines, as well as parts of Mainland Southeast Asia including western Myanmar, northwestern Lao PDR, parts of Cambodia, and southern Viet Nam. Below-normal rainfall is predicted over the western part of the Northern Philippines. Below- to near- normal rainfall is predicted over southern Lao PDR, the rest of the Northern Philippines, and the southernmost parts of Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, near-normal rainfall is predicted.
In terms of temperature, above normal temperature is predicted over most of Southeast Asia, apart from over much of Myanmar, Lao PDR, Cambodia, Brunei Darussalam, and the Philippines where near- to above-normal temperature is predicted.
The ASEANCOF was preceded by a two-day pre-COF training session led by the UK Met Office and RIMES which centred around seasonal forecasting using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and the Forecast Customization System (FOCUS).