[ET-OCPS] Expert Team on Operational Climate Prediction System (17-19 Sept. 2024)

The third session of the WMO Commission for Observation, Infrastructure and Information Systems (INFCOM-3) was held in Geneva, Switzerland from 15 to 19 April 2024. At this session, INFCOM decided to establish the Standing Committee on the WMO Integrated Processing and Prediction System (SC-WIPPS) to address high priority tasks, including those aimed at supporting the Early Warnings for All initiative. These tasks will result in enhancing the predictability in sub-seasonal to decadal climate prediction and better meeting user requirements on climate prediction and climate reanalysis. These have been outlined in a workplan of SC-WIPPS for 2024-2025 and will be undertaken by its subsidiary body, ET-OCPS.

ET-OCPS is responsible for scientific and technical coordination pertinent to climate prediction with the aim of further evolving the WMO Integrated Processing and Prediction System (WIPPS), including functions and products of relevant WIPPS Designated Centres. ET-OCPS will deliberate on and refine the workplan, breaking it down into action plans that emphasize the provision of newly adopted recommended climate products, and a demonstration plan for the WIPPS Rolling Review of User Requirements in climatology category, with associated timelines. ET-OCPS will also consider anticipated challenges, their mitigation measures, and the capabilities of each relevant WIPPS Designated Centre while conducting action plans. The discussions will also encompass two newly adopted WIPPS activities during INFCOM-3: global climate reanalysis and the coordination of assessment of multiple climate reanalysis, and designated centres.

Day 1: Tuesday, 17 September 2024

Time (CEST)Agenda itemsPresenters
08:30-09:00 Meeting registration 
09:00-09:30

 1.    OPENING - Secretariat

 1.1  Welcome remarks   

  • ET-OCPS - Arun KUMAR & Caio COELHO
  • CMCC - Antonio NAVARRA
  • WMO - Yuki HONDA

 1.2 Roundtable introductions

2.     ORGANIZATION OF THE MEETING - Arun KUMAR

2.1  Adoption of the agenda 

2.2  Working arrangements 

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09:30-11:00

 3.     REPORTS ON THE ACTIVITIES OF THE RELEVANT CONSTITUENT BODIES – Arun KUMAR 

 3.1   Overall outcomes of SERCOM-3 (Bali, 4-9 March 2024), INFCOM-3 (Geneva, 15-19 April 2024and EC-78 (Geneva, 10-14 June 2024) 

 3.2   Demonstration of the WMO Integrated Processing and Prediction System Rolling Review of Requirements

 4.     STATUS AND PROGRESS REPORTS - Arun KUMAR

 4.1   Review of action items from the meeting of ET-OCPS-2 (Lisbon, Portugal, 19-23 September 2022)

 

 Secretariat

 

 Secretariat

 

 All members

11:00-11:30 Health break 
11:30-13:00

 4.5    Status of LC-ADCP

 4.2   Summary of GPC-SP systems 

 Status and progress reports by GPCs (15) : Beijing, CMCCCPTEC, ECMWF, Exeter, Melbourne, MontrealMoscowOffenbachPune, Pretoria, SeoulTokyo, Toulouse, Washington

  4.3   Status of LC-SSPMME

 Leon HERMANSON & Jeff KNIGHT

 Caio COELHO

 

 Laura FERRANTI

13:00-14:00 Lunch break 
14:00-14:30 4.4   Status of LC-SPMMEJuyoun LIM
14:00-15:30

 5.     ENHANCEMENT OF SUB-SEASONAL PREDICTION ACTIVITIES  – Caio COELHO

        5.1   Sub-seasonal prediction verification and planned contents

           (Note: Please refer slides 10–14 in the presentation file for agenda item 4.3)

 5.2   Plan for providing recommended products of sub-seasonal and seasonal prediction and display them on LCs’ website

 

Laura FERRANTI

 

 All members

15:30-16:00 Health break 
16:00-17:00

 5.2   Plan for providing recommended products of sub-seasonal and seasonal prediction and display them on LCs’ website - cont.

 All members

 

Day 2: Wednesday, 18 September 2024

Time (CEST)Agenda itemsPresenters
09:00-09:305.3    Enhancing the efficiency of GSCU production  Arun KUMAR
09:30-10:30

 6.     OPERATIONALIZATION OF NEWLY DESIGNED WIPPS CENTRES - Caio COELHO 

 6.1    Status and plans of four GPCs-SSP Beijing, CPTEC (Brazil), Moscow and Tokyo

 Peiqun ZHANG,     Caio COELHO,   Mikhail TOLSTYKH,   Yuhei TAKAYA
10:30-11:00

 6.2    Status and plans of two centres conducting global climate reanalysis (GCRs) ECMWF and NASA (USA)

 Carlo BUONTEMPO   Michael BOSILOVICH
11:00-11:30Health break 
11:30-12:00

 6.3   Status and plan of Lead centre for coordination of assessment of multi climate reanalysis (LC-GCR) ECMWF including the development/refinement of the evaluation metrics for climate reanalysis

Carlo BUONTEMPO
12:00-13:00

 7.     COMPLIANCE REVIEW - Arun KUMAR 

 7.1   Establishment of criteria for centre’s compliance: conformity, major and minor- non-conformity for GPCs-LRF

 7.2   Development of the draft of the consolidated review report of GPCs-SP (Note: It will be presented at the meeting.)

 

 Arun KUMAR

 Arun KUMAR

13:00-14:00 Lunch break 
14:00-14:30

 7.3    Plan and status of other centres compliance review: LC-SPMME, GPCs-ADCP and LC-ADCP

Arun KUMAR
14:30-15:00

 8.   CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES WITH SERCOM/SC-CLI - Caio COELHO

 8.1     Plan for demonstrating the WIPPS Rolling Review of Requirements (RRR) with SC-CLI

 

Arun KUMAR and Kumar KOLLI

15:00-17:00 10.5    Visit ECMWF Data Centre 
19:30 -  Group dinner (Self-funded) 

 

Day 3: Thursday, 19 September 2024

Time (CEST)Agenda itemsPresenters
09:00-11:00

 8.2    Review of action items from OCP-3 and initial discussion on plans for OCP-4

 8.3    Linkages and support for Third Pole RCC Network (TPRCC-N) activities in Regions II

 8.4    Discussion on the integration of CSIS into the WIPPS

          MS Word

 8.5    Update on the guidance documents on SSF and RCF operations

 Secretariat

 Secretariat

 

 Kumar KOLLI

 Kumar KOLLI

11:00-11:30 Health break 
11:30-13:00

 8.6   Discussion on potential improvements to GSCU and GADCU 

 8.7    Update on proposed WMO mechanism for ENSO information initially as a non-WIPPS activity (subject to EC approval of SERCOM-3 recommendation)

 9.     WORK PLAN FOR THE NEXT INTERSESSIONAL PERIOD - Arun KUMAR

 9.1    Plan to address requested WIPPS products and related activities from other Earth system domains

 9.2    Future evolution of WIPPS Designated Centres conducting climate prediction across sub-seasonal to decadal time scale

 Kumar KOLLI

 Kumar KOLLI

 

 

 

 Marko MARKOVIC

 Arun KUMAR 

13:00-14:00 Lunch break 
14:00-15:30

 9.3    Review of ET-OCPS relevant RSMCs in the Manual on WIPPS and the Guide to WIPPS and recommending changes as necessary

 9.4    Strategies for increasing the nimbleness of SP, SSP, and ADCP Infrastructure to meet user requirements

10. OTHER RELEVANT BUSINESS - Arun KUMAR

 10.1  Status and plans for WIGOS RRR regarding Sub-seasonal to Longer Predictions (SSLP)

 10.2  Collaboration with WCRP including emerging technologies such as AI, Report

    - Review of AI in operational climate prediction and reanalysis

 Secretariat

 

 Arun KUMAR

 

 Jeff KNIGHT

 

 Yuhei TAKAYA & Secretariat

15:30-16:00 Health break 
16:00-16:30

  10.3     Review of decisions made and action items

 10.4   Future Membership of ET-OCPS

 10.5   Next meeting

 Secretariat

 Secretariat

 Secretariat

16:30-17:0011.     CLOSING - Arun KUMAR