Planning meeting for the WMO pilot study of global riverine flood prediction products
Planning meeting for the WMO pilot study of global riverine flood prediction products
10 to 12 February 2025 (Geneva, Switzerland)
Overview
WMO plans to facilitate a pilot study of global riverine flood prediction products to raise familiarity with the relatively new science and technology and investigate their potential to contribute to the suite of existing geophysical prediction products and services that are currently integrated into WIPPS. This meeting gathers producers and experts in this domain to review and refine plans for the study.
Proposed outcomes of the pilot study:
Survey the large-scale river flow prediction products (e.g., discharge, runoff, flow percentiles or return periods) provided by the participating traditional and nontraditional sources
Description of common forecast products and formats, operational practice, verification approaches, and near-term (1-5 year) plans for operational global forecasting across different centers.
Recommendations regarding the potential, pathways, product specifications, and the requirements to include operational global riverine flood forecasting into WIPPS.
Collection of Members’ feedback regarding the usefulness of operational global riverine flood prediction products (cascading approach), given their current specifications and available prediction performance information.
Proposed core activities of the pilot study:
Collect information from centres operating large-scale riverine flood prediction system:
Availability of and access to large-scale riverine flood prediction products and the specification of the products (e.g., resolution, latency, usage restrictions),
Provide global riverine flood prediction data for past events that could be assessed through work done during the pilot, and
Validation and verification methods in use by the responsible centre.
Improve understanding of the performance of the large-scale riverine flood prediction products (runoff/discharge) using common verification methods, to the extent possible.
Assess alignment of user needs (including access and use requirements) identified through SERCOM led initiatives with current global system operational capabilities.
Identify the pathway and the work required if such products were consistent with standards enabling their development as potential WIPPS products (and providers as WIPPS centres).
Note: Developing public displays of global products and/or services beyond what currently exists is not in scope of the global riverine flood prediction pilot. Summaries of the outcomes for the selected past flood events may be made available through periodicals and technical bulletins, as time and resources permit.
Expected outcomes of the planning meeting:
Refining and finalizing the work plan for the pilot
Getting an overview (list) of the operational global riverine flood prediction centre’s prediction products and formats, operational practices, and verification or assessment approaches
Strategy and approach for collecting user requirements from Members and improved understanding of requirements’ relevance to global providers.
Defining a timeline and distributing responsibilities amongst participants of the global riverine flood prediction pilot.
Please find the meeting-related information below:
- Presentation template (PPT) here;
- Guidance for the content of the presentations of agenda item 3 and 6 here;
- Draft agenda here.
- Resolution 21 (EC-78) here: CONTRIBUTION OF NON-TRADITIONAL SOURCE TO THE WMO INTEGRATED PROCESSING AND PREDICTION SYSTEM
- EC-78/INF. 4.1.2(7) here: Plan for the Pilot of Global Riverine Flood Prediction Products
Agenda
Day 1 - Monday, 10 Feb 2025
Local Time (UTC+1) | Agenda Item (duration) | Format /Presenter | Outcomes |
08:30 – 08:45 | Registration |
|
|
09:00 – 09:30 | 1. Welcome, Introduction and Setting the Scene
1.1 Opening remarks 1.2 Round table 1.3. Scope and expected outcome of the meeting, including the decisions by EC-78 related to the Global Flood Pilot | Nir Stav, Narendra Tuteja, Andy Wood & Yuki Honda (1.1)
All participants (1.2)
|
|
09:30 – 10:30 | 2. Introduction presentation
2.1 Basic principles of WIPPS and the role of designated centres; Existing hydrological WIPPS activities 2.2. Role and work of INFCOM/SC-WIPPS/ET-OHPS 2.3 User needs: Explaining the role of SERCOM/SC-HYD 2.4. Expected policy guidance from the Policy Advisory Committee (PAC) regarding the cooperation with non-traditional sources in WIPPS | Presentation Secretariat (ESP) (2.1)
Presentation Secretariat (ESP) (2.2)
|
|
10:30 – 11:00 | Break |
|
|
11:00 – 12:30 | 3. Presentations by centres that operationally provide global riverine flood prediction products
(30 min each: 23 min presentation, 7 min Q&A) Presentations should be made available by 4 Feb 25
Structure of the presentations: (i) Drivers for service and global flood modelling (ii) Customer base and user needs (iii) Modelling methods and data requirements (iv) Model performance assessment in hindcast and forecast modes (v) Modelling process and service delivery systems (vi) Data and graphic products that could be made available to the global flood pilot(vii) Future direction of the Centre (viii) Specifications of the available products | Presentations
| Gaining familiarity with the different forecasting systems and identify differences and similarities between the different approaches.
|
12:30 – 13:30 | Lunch Break |
|
|
13:30 – 15:00 | To be continued: 3. Presentations by centres that operationally provide global riverine flood prediction products |
|
|
15:00 – 15:30 | Break |
|
|
15:30 – 16:30 | To be continued: 3. Presentations by centres that operationally provide global riverine flood prediction products |
|
|
16:30 – 17:30 | 4. Lessons Learned from related activities (20 min each: 15 min presentation, 5 min discussion)
4.1. Brazil test case 4.2. European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) 4.3. Google Flood Forecasting Pilot Study
| Presentation | Shared experiences when large-scale riverine flood prediction products are harmonised by members using the 'single voice' principle. |
19:30 - | Dinner (place tbd) |
|
|
Day 2 - Tuesday, 11 Feb 2025
Local Time (UTC+1) | Agenda Item (duration) | Format /Presenter | Outcomes |
9:00 – 10:00 | 5. Introduction of the Plan for the Pilot of Global Riverine Flood Prediction Products
5.1. Presentation of the plan 5.2. Initial discussion about how to update the plan | Presentation Secretariat (ESP, Narendra, Andy) (5.1)
Discussion All Participants (5.2) | List of initial ideas on how to update the plan |
10:00 – 10:30 | 6. Perspectives of users: Short presentations by WMO Members that have no global riverine flood prediction capabilities
(10 min each: 7 min presentation, 3 min Q&A)
Structure of the presentations: (i) Overview of the flood services members provide in its jurisdiction (ii) User needs that are supported by the respective NMHS (iii) Do you use any global flood products at present? If so, which ones? (iv) Perspectives on the potential use of global flood products in its services in future (v) Blending/combining (different) global/regional forecasting products with national forecasts (viii) Product specifications desired to be received from global forecasting systems to provide forecasts and services at the national level | Presentation by Norway, Israel, South Africa, Thailand, Iran, Australia, Kazakhstan, Bulgaria, Hungary, India, Denmark | Getting an overview about user needs and requirements |
10:30 – 11:00 | Break |
|
|
11:00 – 12:30 | To be continued: 6. Short presentations by WMO Members |
|
|
12:30 – 13:30 | Lunch Break |
|
|
13:30 – 15:00 | 7. Blueprint of the plan for the Global Riverine Flood Prediction Pilot
| All participants | Blueprint of the plan |
15:00 – 15:30 | Break |
|
|
15:30 – 16:00 | To be continued 7: Blueprint of the plan for the Global Riverine Flood Prediction Pilot | All participants |
|
16:30 – 17:30 | 8. Collection of desired user requirements within the Global Riverine Flood Prediction Pilot | SC-HYD | Strategy on how to collect desired user requirements |
Day 3 - Wednesday, 12 Feb 2025
Local Time (UTC+1) | Agenda Item (duration) | Format /Presenter | Outcomes |
09:00 – 10:30 | 9. Breakout groups: Refinement of the plan for the Global Riverine Flood Prediction Pilot
| All participants | Suggestions from the breakout groups for the plan for the Global Riverine Flood Prediction Pilot
|
10:30 – 11:00 | Break |
|
|
11:00 – 12:30 | 10. Refinement of the plan for the Global Riverine Flood Prediction Pilot
| All participants | Plan for the Global Flood Pilot
|
12:30 – 13:30 | Lunch Break |
|
|
13:30 – 15:00 | To be continued 10: Refinement of the plan for the Global Riverine Flood Prediction Pilot | All participants |
|
15:00 – 15:30 | Break |
|
|
15:30 – 16:45 | To be continued 10: Refinement of the plan for the Global Riverine Flood Prediction Pilot | All Participants |
|
16:45 – 17:00 | 11. Any other business and closing of the meeting
| Chair ET-OHPS |
|