S2S meeting 2014





Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project




International Conference on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S)

(College Park, Maryland, USA, 10-13 February 2014)




Monday 10 February

Chair: Arun Kumar   Programmatic Session  
T Nakazawa
M Rixen
Bill Lapenta Opening remarks on behalf of the NOAA-National Centers for Environmental Prediction  
Wayne Higgins NOAA-OCP Remarks on behalf of the NOAA-Office of Climate Program  
Annarita Mariotti Research to advance intra-seasonal to inter-annual climate prediction  
Jae-Cheol Nam The activities of WMO S2S International Coordination Office  
F Vitart
A Robertson
Overview of S2S project  
Daniel Eleuterio Towards a National Earth System Prediction Capability  
Chair: Arun Kumar   Relevant Phenomenon  
Duane Waliser Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE)  
Eric Maloney WGNE MJO Task Force: Understanding MJO Dynamics and Aiding Subseasonal Prediction  
Nicholas Klingaman  The role of air-sea coupling in MJO propagation in the Hadley Centre model  
Hai Lin Simulating the Extratropical Response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation  
Om Tripathi The Stratospheric Network for the Assessment of Predictability (SNAP)  
Chair: Harry Hendon   Relevant Phenomenon   
Paul Dirmeyer Does the NOAA global model take full benefit of land state information for subseasonal forecasts?  
Joshua Roundy The importance of land-atmosphere coupling for seasonal drought prediction   
Bin Wang Subtropical High predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm  
Tim DelSole Complimentary Skill and Predictability in Multi-Model Ensembles  
Matthew Newman Diagnosing subseasonal predictability of tropical anomalies  
Tim Stockdale Predictability of the Arctic Oscillation
Yuhei Takaya Are Negative Arctic Oscillation Events the Opportunity for Sub-seasonal Forecasting?   
Andrew Robertson Indian summer monsoon rainfall potential predictability on sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales  
Wanqiu Wang  Impacts of the convection parameterization and ocean surface on the MJO prediction   
Ming Cai Variability of Mass Transport into Polar Stratosphere and Winter Cold Air Outbreaks in Mid-latitudes  
Tuesday 11 February
Chair: Frederic Vitart   Prediction of Extremes  
Randall Dole Improving Understanding and Predictions of Extreme Events: The Climate-Weather Connection  
Stan Benjamin Blocking error in 1-12 month global model forecasts, dependency on numerics and resolution  
Rainer Bleck An improved algorithm for detecting blocking events  
Suranjana Saha Analysis of CFSv2's capability to predict short lived extremes in the day 1-45 range  
R Elsberry
H-C Tsai
Beyond Two-week Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Events in Western North Pacific and Atlantic  
Gabriel Vecchi Towards regional predictions of tropical cyclone activity and hydroclimate  
Julia Manganello Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in an ECMWF coupled operational prediction system  
Debra Hudson Subseasonal prediction of extreme heat over Australia  
William Stern Seasonal Predictions of the Anomalous Heat and Dryness during the Summer of 2012 using GFDL GCMs  
Chair: Duane Waliser   Initialization and Perturbation Methods  
Harry Hendon Coupled Breeding for Initializing Ensemble Multiweek Prediction  
Laura Ferranti Flow dependent verification of the ECMWF extended range ensemble forecasts  
Malaquias Peña Subseasonal Prediction Experiments with the Global Ensemble Forecast System  
M Vellinga
A Arribas
Extended-range forecasts for onset of the African rainy seasons  
Yvan Orsolini Impact of snow initialization on sub-seasonal forecasts  
Jesse Meng Implementation of the NCEP operational GLDAS for the CFS land initialization  
Jon Gottschalk Subseasonal to seasonal prediction: CPC operational outlooks and other applications  
Chidong Zhang MJO: A possible path to forecast of global fire and flood probability with advanced lead time  
Zhihong Jiang A study of the impacts of late spring Tibetan Plateau snow cover on Chinese early autumn precipitation  
Wesdnesday 12 February
Chair: Andrew Robertson   Design of Forecast Systems (Operational Centers)  
Wassila Thiaw Subseasonal forecasting for Africa and tropical climate sensitive regions  
D Rowlands
W Norton
A user perspective on predictability and skill in extended range forecasts  
Huug van den Dool Analysis of 35 Years of Hindcasts made in Conjunction with CFSR  
Kieran Lynch Verification of European Monthly Wind Speed Forecasts  
Chair: David Dewitt   Design of Forecast Systems  
Yuejian Zhu NAEFS Status and Future Plan  
Jin Huang North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)  
Kim Hae-Jeong Forecasting Activities on Intraseasonal Variability at APEC Climate Center  
Atul Kumar  Current status and prospects of Extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon using CFS model  
Frederic Vitart Impact of resolution on sub-seasonal skill scores  
Jieshun Zhu ENSO prediction in Project Minerva: Sensitivity to Ensemble Size and Atmospheric Horizontal Resolution  
Franco Molteni  Extra-tropical flow regimes and connections with tropical rainfall in the MINERVA experiments  
Antje Weisheimer On the impact of stochastic physical parametrizations in ECMWF's seasonal forecasting system 4   
Mong-Ming Lu The Subseasonal to Seasonal Operational Forecast System Developed at CWB Taiwan  
Joshua Fu S2S Researches at IPRC/University of Hawaii  
Sun Shan Global Coupled Atmosphere/Ocean Model for Seasonal and Climate Forecast Applications at NOAA/ESRL  
Song Yang Subseasonal-Seasonal Predictions of the Asian Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version  
Chair: Alberto Arribas   Approaches to Integrate S2S  
Caio Coello Verification of Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Predictions  
Sin-Chan Chou Evaluation of climatic extreme indicators forecasted by the regional climate Eta model  
Kingtse Mo Hydrologic predictability over the United States using the National Multi Model Ensemble  
Augustin Vintzileos Challenges in forecasting the MJO  
Ousmane Ndiaye Forecasting at sub‐seasonal time
scale over West‐Africa : needs, gaps
and challenges
Yuhei Takaya The New JMA's one Month Ensemble Prediction System and its Performance  
Frederic Vitart Sub-seasonal prediction at ECMWF