World Meteorological Organization

 

Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project

International Conference on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S)

(College Park, Maryland, USA, 10-13 February 2014)

 

PRESENTATIONS

 

Monday 10 February
Chair: Arun Kumar		Programmatic Session
T Nakazawa M Rixen	WMO	WWRP/WCRP
Bill Lapenta	NOAA-NCEP	Opening remarks on behalf of the NOAA-National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Wayne Higgins	NOAA-OCP	Remarks on behalf of the NOAA-Office of Climate Program
Annarita Mariotti	NOAA-OCP MAPP	Research to advance intra-seasonal to inter-annual climate prediction
Jae-Cheol Nam	NIMR	The activities of WMO S2S International Coordination Office
F Vitart A Robertson	S2S	Overview of S2S project
Daniel Eleuterio	ESPC	Towards a National Earth System Prediction Capability
Chair: Arun Kumar		Relevant Phenomenon
Duane Waliser	JPL-NASA	Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment (ISVHE)
Eric Maloney	CSU	WGNE MJO Task Force: Understanding MJO Dynamics and Aiding Subseasonal Prediction
Nicholas Klingaman	U. Reading	The role of air-sea coupling in MJO propagation in the Hadley Centre model
Hai Lin	CMC	Simulating the Extratropical Response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Om Tripathi	U. Reading	The Stratospheric Network for the Assessment of Predictability (SNAP)
Chair: Harry Hendon		Relevant Phenomenon
Paul Dirmeyer	GMU	Does the NOAA global model take full benefit of land state information for subseasonal forecasts?
Joshua Roundy	Princeton	The importance of land-atmosphere coupling for seasonal drought prediction
Bin Wang	IPRC U Hawaii	Subtropical High predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm
Tim DelSole	GMU	Complimentary Skill and Predictability in Multi-Model Ensembles
Matthew Newman	NOAA-CIRES	Diagnosing subseasonal predictability of tropical anomalies
Tim Stockdale	ECMWF	Predictability of the Arctic Oscillation
Yuhei Takaya	JMA	Are Negative Arctic Oscillation Events the Opportunity for Sub-seasonal Forecasting?
Andrew Robertson	IRI-Columbia	Indian summer monsoon rainfall potential predictability on sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales
Wanqiu Wang	NCEP-NOAA	Impacts of the convection parameterization and ocean surface on the MJO prediction
Ming Cai	FSU	Variability of Mass Transport into Polar Stratosphere and Winter Cold Air Outbreaks in Mid-latitudes
Tuesday 11 February
Chair: Frederic Vitart		Prediction of Extremes
Randall Dole	ESRL-NOAA	Improving Understanding and Predictions of Extreme Events: The Climate-Weather Connection
Stan Benjamin	ESRL-NOAA	Blocking error in 1-12 month global model forecasts, dependency on numerics and resolution
Rainer Bleck	ESRL-NOAA	An improved algorithm for detecting blocking events
Suranjana Saha	NCEP-NOAA	Analysis of CFSv2's capability to predict short lived extremes in the day 1-45 range
R Elsberry H-C Tsai	NPS	Beyond Two-week Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Events in Western North Pacific and Atlantic
Gabriel Vecchi	GFDL-NOAA	Towards regional predictions of tropical cyclone activity and hydroclimate
Julia Manganello	COLA	Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in an ECMWF coupled operational prediction system
Debra Hudson	BoM	Subseasonal prediction of extreme heat over Australia
William Stern	GFDL-NOAA	Seasonal Predictions of the Anomalous Heat and Dryness during the Summer of 2012 using GFDL GCMs
Chair: Duane Waliser		Initialization and Perturbation Methods
Harry Hendon	BoM	Coupled Breeding for Initializing Ensemble Multiweek Prediction
Laura Ferranti	ECMWF	Flow dependent verification of the ECMWF extended range ensemble forecasts
Malaquias Peña	NCEP-NOAA	Subseasonal Prediction Experiments with the Global Ensemble Forecast System
M Vellinga A Arribas	Met Office	Extended-range forecasts for onset of the African rainy seasons
Yvan Orsolini	NILU	Impact of snow initialization on sub-seasonal forecasts
Jesse Meng	NCEP-NOAA	Implementation of the NCEP operational GLDAS for the CFS land initialization
Jon Gottschalk	NCEP-NOAA	Subseasonal to seasonal prediction: CPC operational outlooks and other applications
Chidong Zhang	RSMAS UM	MJO: A possible path to forecast of global fire and flood probability with advanced lead time
Zhihong Jiang	Nanjing	A study of the impacts of late spring Tibetan Plateau snow cover on Chinese early autumn precipitation
Wesdnesday 12 February
Chair: Andrew Robertson		Design of Forecast Systems (Operational Centers)
Wassila Thiaw	NCEP-NOAA	Subseasonal forecasting for Africa and tropical climate sensitive regions
D Rowlands W Norton	City Financial UK	A user perspective on predictability and skill in extended range forecasts
Huug van den Dool	NCEP-NOAA	Analysis of 35 Years of Hindcasts made in Conjunction with CFSR
Kieran Lynch	U. Reading	Verification of European Monthly Wind Speed Forecasts
Chair: David Dewitt		Design of Forecast Systems
Yuejian Zhu	NCEP-NOAA	NAEFS Status and Future Plan
Jin Huang	NCEP-NOAA	North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
Kim Hae-Jeong	APEC Climate Center	Forecasting Activities on Intraseasonal Variability at APEC Climate Center
Atul Kumar	IITM	Current status and prospects of Extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon using CFS model
Frederic Vitart	ECMWF	Impact of resolution on sub-seasonal skill scores
Jieshun Zhu	COLA	ENSO prediction in Project Minerva: Sensitivity to Ensemble Size and Atmospheric Horizontal Resolution
Franco Molteni	ECMWF	Extra-tropical flow regimes and connections with tropical rainfall in the MINERVA experiments
Antje Weisheimer	ECMWF	On the impact of stochastic physical parametrizations in ECMWF's seasonal forecasting system 4
Mong-Ming Lu	CWB Taiwan	The Subseasonal to Seasonal Operational Forecast System Developed at CWB Taiwan
Joshua Fu	U Hawaii	S2S Researches at IPRC/University of Hawaii
Sun Shan	ESRL-NOAA	Global Coupled Atmosphere/Ocean Model for Seasonal and Climate Forecast Applications at NOAA/ESRL
Song Yang	U. China	Subseasonal-Seasonal Predictions of the Asian Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version
Chair: Alberto Arribas		Approaches to Integrate S2S
Caio Coello	INPE-Brazil	Verification of Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Predictions
Sin-Chan Chou	INPE-Brazil	Evaluation of climatic extreme indicators forecasted by the regional climate Eta model
Kingtse Mo	NCEP-NOAA	Hydrologic predictability over the United States using the National Multi Model Ensemble
Augustin Vintzileos	ESSIC-UMD	Challenges in forecasting the MJO
Ousmane Ndiaye	ANACIM	Forecasting at sub‐seasonal time scale over West‐Africa : needs, gaps and challenges
Yuhei Takaya	JMA	The New JMA's one Month Ensemble Prediction System and its Performance
Frederic Vitart	ECMWF	Sub-seasonal prediction at ECMWF