Typhoon Landfall   FDP    

(TLFDP)

(2010-2018)

Lead Center: Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI), SMS, CMA

Lead Investigator:

Dr Xiaotu LEI (STI)

NEWS

    TLFDP is now on its THIRD PHASE

The overall goal of TLFDP is to enhance the ability of forecasters to deliver timely and accurate typhoon forecasts and support decision makers to better understand and utilize the products of typhoon forecasts in their decision making process. The project also aims to demonstrate the performance of the most up-to-date techniques in tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting and provide a comprehensive assessment of the impact of an enhanced typhoon forecast service as well as its social and economic benefits. The Project is supported jointly by WMO's Tropical Cyclone Programme and World Weather Research Programme.

1. To demonstrate and evaluate newly developed techniques for tropical cyclone intensity analysis in the western North Pacific.
2. To demonstrate and evaluate newly developed techniques for tropical cyclone intensity and precipitation forecasting in the western North Pacific.
3. To develop and/or implement new techniques for the verification of tropical cyclone intensity and precipitation forecasts in the western North Pacific.
4. To study the impact of uncertainty of observations on intensity forecast evaluation and to develop an official guidance on tropical cyclone observations to be used in intensity forecast evaluation in the western North Pacific.
5. To develop an official guidance on tropical cyclone intensity forecast evaluation and verification which can be adopted by the operational agencies in the western North Pacific.

TLFDP PHASE-III

Jan-Sep 2016: Drafting of TLFDP Phase-III Action Plan

Oct 2016: 

Consultation with WMO Secretariat to decide on scope of engagement and implementation of Phase III

Official invitations sent out to participate in TLFDP-III

Establishment of International Scientific Steering Group

TLFDP Progress Meeting and Workshop (Shanghai, 20-21Oct 2016)

Oct 2016-Dec 2018: Implementation of TLFDP Phase-III Action Plan

December 2017: Interim Review Meeting

Review objectives, undertake validation and performance assessment of systems taking part in trial run; engage key stakeholders/users to provide feedback on products; adjust Project Implementation Plan, if needed (ISSC).

December 2018: Final Review Meeting and Report Preparation (ISSC).

December 2019:

Publication of Guidelines on provision of typhoon forecast services reflecting experience gained from TLFDP, to be followed by a Capacity Building Workshop for WMO Members (ISSC, WMO Secretariat).

                                PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Project Chairperson: CHEN Zhenlin (SMS/CMA)

Project vice-Chairperson: CHENG Cho Ming (HKO)

    alternate: CHAN Sai-Tick

STI/CMA Support: LEI Xiaotu

NMC/CMA Support: QIAN Chuanhai

TCS Support: YU Jixin

WMO Secretariat Support:PENG Taoyong & Nanette LOMARDA

TEAM 1 (Data Collection & Sharing)

Team Leader: LU Xiaoqin (STI)

Members: TAN Yan (STI)

               WAN Rijin (STI)

               YIN Yue (STI

               representatives of 16 data providers

TEAM 2 (Intensity Analysis, Technique Demonstration & Evaluation)

Team Leader: CHAN ST (HKO)

Member: BAI Lina (STI)

MEETINGS

TLFDP ISSC Meeting - Phase 1 (Shanghai, 24 May 2010)

TLFDP ISSC Meeting - Phase 2 (Shanghai, 12 Jun 2012)

TLFDP ISSC Meeting - Phase 3(Shanghai, 21 Oct 2016)

WORKSHOPS

2nd Training Workshop on TC Forecasting

(Shanghai, 12-14 Jun 2012)

1st Training Workshop on TC Forecasting

(Shanghai, 24-28 May 2010)

Ri Hak Il (DPRK) - carried out verification of TC precipitation forecasts from ECMWF-IFS by utilizing the MET forecast verification package

Pak Sang Il (DPRK) -implemented the TC genesis products in real-time based on the ECMWF-EPS gridded output in TFEAS (utilizing the GFDL vortex tracker)

2014

Boothum Tanglumlead (Thailand) - evaluated the TC genesis products in real-time using CMA T639 and the NCEP GFS gridded output and assessed the lead time and genesis position errors.

Song Yong Chol & Pak Sang Il (DPRK) - implemented the TC genesis products in real-time based on the ECMWF IFS gridded output in the TFEAS (utilizing the GFDL vortex tracker)

Evan Carlos (Philippines) - completed a research project to enable nationwide nowcasts of TC rainfall using the SWIRLS of HKO

2013                          

Yen Lethihai (Vietnam) - implemented the GFDL vortex tracker in STI's TFEAS which can now provide TC genesis products in real-time based on the CMA-T639 gridded output

2012

Nursalleh K. Chang (Malaysia) - completed a research study on TC intensity forecast using multi-model ensemble techniques

Michael Bala (Philippines) & Maqrun Fadzli Mohd Fahmi (Malaysia) - carried out a research study on nowcasting of rainfall brought by TC using radar data

TLFDP Phase III Action Plan (2016-2018) 

TLFDP Phase II Action Plan (2013-2015)

TLFDP Phase I Action Plan(2010-2013)

Chang, N.K., L.S. Lee and Y.S. Li, 2012: Comparison of performance of various multiple-model ensemble techniques in forecasting intensity of tropical cyclone. Tropical Cyclone Res. Rev., 1(3), 353-360.

Chen, C.Z., Q.Q. Li, and J.H. Yu, 2012: Evaluating the performance of western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity guidance. Part I: Basic characteristics. Tropical Cyclone Res. Rev, 2012, 1(3): 340-352;doi: 10.6057/2012TCRR03.10.

Chen C.Z., J.H. Yu, and Q.Q. Li, 2011: Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity guidance evaluations using an alternative verification technique.Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2011(3),151-156.

Chen G.M., H. Yu, Q. Cao, and Z.H. Zeng, 2013: The performance of global models in TCtrack forecasting over the western North Pacific from 2010 to 2012. Tropical Cyclone Res. Rev. 2(3): 149-158;
doi: 10.6057/2013TCRR03.02.

Chen G. M., J. Tang, and Z. H. Zeng, 2012: Verification on forecasts of tropical cyclone over Western north Pacific in 2011. Met. Mon., 2012(10), 1196-1204. (in Chinese)

Chen G. M., H. Yu, and Q. Cao, 2013: Verification on forecasts of tropical cyclone over Western north Pacific in 2012. Met. Mon., 2013(10), 1350-1358. (in Chinese)

Lei X. T., H. Yu, 2015: The progress of WMO typhoon landfall forecast demonstration project. Advances in Met S&T. 5(2): 18-23. (in Chinese)

Li, Q.Q., C.Z. Chen, and J.H. Yu, 2012: Evaluating the performance of western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity guidance. Part II: Intensity forecast accuracy in different life stages. Tropical Cyclone
Res. Rev, 1(4): 458-468; doi: 10.6057/2012TCRR04.04.

Qi L.B., H. Yu, and P.Y. Chen, 2013: Selective ensemble mean technique for tropical cyclone track forecast by using ensemble prediction systems. Quart. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.2196.

Qi L. B., X. G. Cao, 2013: Analysis and comparison of forecasting of a heavy rainfall event in Shanghai under twin typhoon situation. J. of Trop. Met. 29(2), 177-188. (in Chinese)

Tang J., G. M. Chen, and H. Yu, 2011: Verification on forecasts of tropical cyclone over Western north Pacific in 2010. Met. Mon., 2011(10), 1320-1328.. (in Chinese)

Tang, X., X.T. Lei, and H. Yu, 2012: WMO Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (WMOTLFDP) – concept and progress. Tropical Cyclone Res. Rev., 1, 89-96.

Woo, W.C., K.K. Li, M. Bala, 2014: An Algorithm to Enhance Nowcast of Rainfall Brought by Tropical Cyclones Through Separation of Motions. Tropical Cyclone Res. Rev., 3(2), 111-121.

Yu, H., S.T. Chan, B. Brown, and Coauthors, 2012: Operational tropical cyclone forecast verification practice in the western North Pacific region. Tropical Cyclone Res. Rev., 1(3), 361-372.

Yu, H., G.M. Chen, and B. Brown, 2013a: A new verification measure for tropical cyclone track forecasts and its experimental application. Tropical Cyclone Res. Rev.,2(4).

Yu, H., P.Y. Chen, Q.Q. Li and B. Tang, 2013b: Current capability of operational numerical models in predicting tropical cyclone intensity in Western North Pacific. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 353-367.

Yu H., Chen G.M., Wan R.J.. 2015. A multi-model consensus forecast technique for tropical cyclone intensity based on model output calibration. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 73(4):667-678, doi:10.11676/qxxb2015.043 (in Chinese)