CHy-14 - Theme Area 4
Hydrological Forecasting and Prediction

List of activities

1. Continue to provide guidance on the further implementation of the flood forecasting initiatives, including the Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS) with global coverage, the Coastal Flood Inundation Demonstration Project (CFIDP) and the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP);
2. Review and, if required, update approaches to urban flood forecasting and early warning;
3. Prepare a comprehensive report on large-scale flood inundation analysis and prediction models;
4. Assist in the preparation of a Manual on Flood Risk Mapping (including vulnerability and hazard);
5. Assist in the promotion and application of the Manual on Low-flow Estimation and Prediction (WMO-No. 1029) and the Manual on Flood Forecasting and Warning (WMO-No.1072), and in related training;
6. Compile and provide guidance material on streamflow forecasting, including application of ensemble methods, using hydrological modelling linked to numerical weather prediction, radar rainfall nowcasting products and satellite-based estimates of precipitation;
7. Compile case studies and provide guidance on extended hydrological prediction for water resources management, including information on related climate drivers;
8. Promote and assist in the use of the distance-learning and advanced training module on flood forecasting and hydrological prediction;
9. Identify good practices and make recommendations for ways forward in drought prediction;
10. Collect examples of good practice in the dissemination of flood and drought information to the public, and compile and provide guidance on flood and low-flow warning signal approaches;
11. Identify good practices and make recommendations for ways forward in hydrological aspects of debris flow forecasting.

Expected outputs/outcomes – Contribution to WMO Expected Results 3 and 7

1. Availability of new techniques and better assimilation of available data into hydrological models to support improved flood forecasting capabilities;
2. Assistance to, and guidance in, disaster mitigation and risk management in support of the role and responsibilities of NMHSs;
3. Guidance and case studies on the application of extended hydrological prediction capabilities;
4. Improved guidance on how to deal with floods and droughts at the national and regional levels, including information dissemination;
5. Improved guidance in forecasting droughts at the regional, national and local levels;
6. Increased cooperation and coordination with other relevant groups and agencies, which will increase the effectiveness of CHy activities.