[ET-OHPS-1] Expert Team on Operational Hydrological Prediction Systems
The integration of the hydrological cycle as a key component of Earth System modeling and prediction, allows for a better understanding and simulation of interlinked processes in the atmosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and oceans. It is therefore critical to consider hydrological modelling and prediction developments in the broader context of various related Earth System components.
The Expert Team on Operational Hydrological Prediction Systems (ET-OHPS) under the Standing Committee on Data Processing for Applied Earth System Modelling and Prediction (SC‐ESMP) commenced its journey in September 2023. It will facilitate the advancement and linked development of hydrological prediction within the Earth System prediction framework by focusing on operational hydrological prediction systems. Please find the ToR of ET-OHPS here.
To gain momentum and make progress and advancements, an in-person meeting is organized with the following objectives:
- Develop an ET-OHPS workplan for the coming years to be submitted to INFCOM-3 (held in April 2024).
- Define and discuss identified ET-OHPS priority topics.
- Introduction of WMO ongoing activities and identifying linkages with and contributions from ET-OHPS.
- Establishing a productive working relationship between the ET-OHPS members.
The first in-person meeting with all members is scheduled to take place in Geneva, Switzerland, from November 28 to 30, 2023. This three-day event will have a hybrid format to accommodate participants unable to travel.
- Location: Lake 7, WMO HQ
- Online meeting link: here
Agenda
all times in Central European Time (CET), UTC+1
Day 1 - Tuesday, 28 Nov 2023
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Local Time (UTC+1) |
Agenda Item (duration) |
Format /Presenter |
Outcomes |
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08:30 – 09:00 |
Registration |
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09:00 – 09:30 |
1. Welcome, Introduction and Setting the Scene
1.1 Opening remarks (10) 1.2 Round table (10) 1.3. Scope and expected outcome of the meeting (10) |
Narendra Tuteja & Yuki Honda (1.1)
All participants (1.2)
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09:30 – 10:30 |
2. Introduction presentation
2.1 Basic principles of WIPPS and the role of designated centres; Existing RSHCs’ activities; WMO Data Policy (10+5)
2.2 User needs: 2.2.1 Explaining the WIPPS Rolling Review of Requirements (RRR) (10+5) 2.2.2 Explaining the role of SERCOM/SC-HYD (10+5) |
Presentation /Secretariat (ESP) (2.1)
Presentation /Secretariat (ESP) (2.2.1)
Presentation |
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10:30 – 11:00 |
Break |
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11:00 – 12:30 |
3. Presentation by ET-OHPS members
3.1 Current state of the art and future developments in terms of operational regional and global hydrological modelling of the ET-OHPS member’s organizations: (10+5) - Operational products - Data assimilation system - Postprocessing to provide regional scale products - Calibration, validation, and verification methods - Forecast products and visualization - Gaps between operational hydrologic forecasts and research advances - How are operational products used for decision making? - Advances in coupled earth system modelling including hydrology.
3.2 Current state in the region of the ET-OHPS member regarding operational hydrological forecasting and what is or would be possible in the region using global/regional model outputs. (10+5)
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Presentation /ET-OHPS members:
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Identify differences, and similarities between the different approaches.
Identify needs for harmonization and standardization.
Identify regional capacities and needs and terms of streamlining global products and uptake of global products by regional centres. |
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12:30 – 13:30 |
Lunch Break |
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13:30 – 15:00 |
To be continued: 3. Presentation by ET-OHPS members
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15:00 – 15:30 |
Break |
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15:30 – 16:30 |
4. HydroSOS
4.1. Introduction of HydroSOS with a special focus on global forecasting products and Regional HydroSOS Implementation Plans (20)
4.2. Discussion ET-OHPS contribution to HydroSOS in terms of providing global S2S forecasting products and contribution to Regional HydroSOS Implementation Plans (40) |
Presentation /HydroSOS Technical Coordination Team: Katie Facer-Childs & Alan Jenkins (4.1)
Discussion /All Participants (4.2) |
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16:30 – 17:00 |
5. State of the Global Water Report
5.1 Presentation about past and ongoing work (15) 5.2 Discussion about linkages between ET-OHPS and the State of the Global Water Report (15) |
Presentation /Secretariat (HWR)
Discussion /All Participants (5.2) |
List of idea of linkages between ET-OHPS and the State of the Global Water Report |
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19:30 - |
Dinner (place tbd) |
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Day 2 - Wednesday, 29 Nov 2023
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Local Time (UTC+1) |
Agenda Item (duration) |
Format /Presenter |
Outcomes |
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09:00 – 10:30 |
6. Forecast verification and standards
6.1 Presentation by ET-OHPS members: example of best-practices and gaps (60) 6.2. Discussion about priorities for ET-OHPS regarding forecast verification and standards (30) |
Presentation
Discussion /All participants (6.2) |
List of priorities for ET-OHPS regarding forecast verification and standards |
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10:30 – 11:00 |
Break |
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11:00 – 11:30 |
To be continued: 6.2 Discussion about priorities for ET-OHPS regarding forecast verification and standards (30) |
Discussion /All participants (6.2) |
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11:30 – 12:30 |
7. Review of existing decisions/materials
7.1 Plan for the Establishment of WMO Hydrological Centres in the Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) 7.2 WMO Plan of Action for Hydrology (regional/global modelling and forecasting aspects) 7.3 ToRs of ET-OHPS |
Presentation /Secretariat (ESP)
Discussion /All participants |
Identify and prioritize items to be included in the ET-OHPS workplan |
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12:30 – 13:30 |
Lunch Break |
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13:30 – 15:00 |
8. Blueprint of the ET-OHPS workplan |
Discussion /All participants |
Workplan blueprint
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15:00 – 15:30 |
Break |
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15:30 – 17:00 |
To be continued 8: Blueprint of the ET-OHPS workplan |
Discussion /All participants |
Workplan blueprint |
Day 3 - Thursday, 30 Nov 2023
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Local Time (UTC+1) |
Agenda Item (duration) |
Format /Presenter |
Outcomes |
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09:00 – 09:45 |
9. Working mechanism of WIPPS centres for Climate Prediction |
Presentation /Secretariat (ESP) |
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09:45 – 10:30 |
10. Discussion about potential new hydrological WIPPS activities/products (different time scales, different parameters/variables) |
Discussion /All participants |
Priority list of potential new hydrological WIPPS activities/products |
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10:30 – 11:00 |
Break |
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11:00 – 12:30 |
11. Refinement of ET-OHPS workplan |
Discussion /All participants |
ET-OHPS workplan |
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12:30 – 13:30 |
Lunch Break |
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13:30 – 15:00 |
To be continue 11: Refinement ET-OHPS workplan |
Discussion /All participants |
ET-OHPS workplan |
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15:00 – 15:30 |
Break |
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15:30 – 16:15 |
12. Status of Operational Forecasting Report Discussion about the need and content of a report developed by ET-OHPS on the status of operational forecasting including recommendations about emerging priorities or needs for the next decade in building operational forecasting |
Discussion /All Participants |
Overview of possible report content if needed |
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16:15 – 17:00 |
13. Liaise with additional WMO expert communities.
13.1 Short presentation by each focal point about the main work of the respective expert body (25; 5 each) 13.2 Discussion about identifying concrete actions to liaise with additional WMO expert communities and appointing ET-OHPS focal points (20) |
Presentation /focal points (SC-HYD, SC-AGR, GCW-AG, RB, WCRP): Emmanuel Brocard (13.1) Discussion /All participants (13.2) |
List of concrete actions to liaise with additional WMO expert communities; Appointing ET-OHPS focal points to relevant expert groups |
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