World Meteorological Organization

AG-VSA Operating Plan 2024-2027
[Greg, Matt and Sam]

• Click here to view the current version of the OP (last updated 3 October 2024).

PPT. 5.3(1)
(20.I.2025)

PPT. 5.3(2)
(17.I.2025)

INF. 5.4
(31.I.2025)

+ Attachment (restricted access - see Note)

Functional capability requirements for the numerical modelling of volcanic ash clouds and gases, including re-suspended volcanic ash clouds
[Deliverable 4, Costanza and Matt]

(Note, the Attachment to INF. 5.4 is accessible by AG-VSA members only using their WMO FileCloud login credentials)

INF. 5.5(1)
(17.I.2025)

INF. 5.5(2)
(17.I.2025)

INF. 5.8(1)
(07.I.2025)

INF. 5.8(2)
(24.I.2025)

PPT. 5.8(3)
(22.I.2025)

Demonstrations/showcases of scientific and technological innovation and good practices of relevance to the IAVW and other application areas
[Deliverable 8, All]

5.8(1) - Outcomes of the 2024 Aeronautical Meteorology Scientific Conference (AeroMetSci-2024)

5.8(2) - Groups and fora addressing scientifically-related subjects of relevance to AG-VSA

5.8(3) - Volcanic ash advisories – Access and use at the British Geological Survey

Note, Agenda Item 5.8 will conclude immediately after Agenda Item 8.

Doc. 5.9
(23.I.2025)

INF. 5.9
(23.I.2025)

- Provisional programme and, where applicable, AG-VSA experts' contribution

- Other relevant issues (if any)
[Costanza, Matt and Sam]

PPT. 5.8(4)
(Coming soon)

PPT. 5.8(5)
(28.I.2025)

5.8(4) - Coordinating response during bi-national volcanic eruptions

5.8(5) - Eruption column model for QVA forecast

Topic 1: Climatic controls on volcanic processes and potential implications for future volcanic hazards to aviation
[Thomas Aubry, University of Exeter, UK]

Abstract: The vast majority of volcanic processes are affected by climate. Surface mass loading, influenced by sea level, ice sheets and precipitations, influence the distribution of volcanic eruptions in terms of magnitude, frequency and geographical distribution. The same climatic processes determine the presence of surface or subsurface water which, along with atmospheric conditions, have a strong influence on the dynamics of explosive volcanic column. Last, large-scale atmospheric dynamics and precipitation influence the long-range transport of volcanic ash, gas and aerosols, and their atmospheric lifetime. I will provide an overview of how such climate-volcano feedback operate, their implications for future volcanic hazards to the aviation industry, and the numerous open research questions that need to be addressed for a better assessment of how these hazards will evolve.

Topic 2: VAAC QVA forecast verification
[Matt Hort and Frances Beckett, Met Office, UK]

(*Rev. No. 1 issued on 03.II.2025)

Topic 3: Psychological, behavioural and physical health impacts for occupants on aircraft encountering volcanic emissions
[Claire Horwell, University of Durham, UK]

Abstract: Volcanic emissions can be encountered at all aviation altitudes and vary significantly based on the type of eruption and atmospheric conditions, requiring complex route diversion decisions based on known risks to aircraft engines and airframes, but also on the potential health and behavioural impacts to aircraft occupants, which have historically received significantly less research focus. This talk will review how and whether volcanic emissions (ash, gas and aerosol) enter aircraft, and the potential health impacts (work commissioned by the Department for Transport). A case study will then focus on passengers and crew on flight BA009, which encountered the Mt Galunggung ash cloud in 1982 (with complete failure of all engines), who were interviewed to understand their behaviours and any health impacts during the event, and how the crisis affected their lives over the next forty years. This is one of only very few studies which have evaluated how aircraft occupants respond during and after an aviation crisis. Both studies have made recommendations for civil aviation management and identified knowledge gaps.