TMR STCF Atlantic

 

 

Forecast Issued June 2015

Forecast Period: June to November 2015

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval
CSU
# of named TCs
8
±3.7
# of hurricane 3 ±2.1
ACE
40
±48
 

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Forecast Issued April 2015

Forecast Period: June to December 2015

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval
TSR
# of named TCs
13
±4
ACE
79
±58

 

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Forecast Issued April 2015

Forecast Period: June to November 2015

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval

 

CSU

# of named TCs
7
±3.4
# of hurricanes
3
±2.4
ACE
53
±40
TSR
# of named TCs
11
ACE
56
ECMWF
# of named TCs
password
password
# of hurricanes
password
password
ACE
password
password

 

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Forecast Issued August 2014

Forecast Period: August to November 2014

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval

 

CSU

# of named TCs
9
±2.3
# of hurricanes
3
±1.6
ACE
58
±36
                   Full text of CSU aug2014 fcst
TSR
# of named TCs
12
±3
ACE
70
±41

NOAA

# of named storms
7.5
±2.5
# of hurricanes
2.5
±1.5
ACE
53
±25

 

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Forecast Issued July 2014

Forecast Period: July to November 2014

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval

 

CSU

# of named TCs
10
±3.5
# of hurricanes
4
±2.0
ACE
65
±45
TSR
# of named TCs
12
±3
ACE
74
±45
ECMWF
# of named TCs
password
password
# of hurricanes
password
password
ACE
password
password

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Forecast Issued June 2014

Forecast Period: June to November 2014

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval

 

CSU

# of named TCs
10
±3.7
# of hurricanes
4
±2.1
ACE
65
±48
TSR
# of named TCs
12
±4
ACE
77
±50
ECMWF
# of named TCs
password
password
# of hurricanes
password
password
ACE
password
password

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Forecast Issued May 2014

Forecast Period: June to November 2014

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval
CSU
# of named TCs
9
±3.4
ACE
55
±53
ECMWF
# of named TCs
password
password
ACE
password
password
UKMO logo
# of named TCs
      
10
±3
# of hurricanes
       
6
±3
ACE
84
±37
NOAA
# of named TCs
      
10.5
±2.5
# of hurricanes
       
4.5
±1.5
ACE
70
±30
TSR
# of named TCs
12
±4
ACE
73
±53

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Forecast Issued August 2012

Forecast Period: August to November 2012

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval
CSU
# of named TCs
10
±2.3
ACE
85
±36
ECMWF
# of named TCs
ACE

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Forecast Issued June 2012

Forecast Period: June to November 2012

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval
CSU
# of named TCs
13
±3.7
ACE
80
±48
ECMWF
# of named TCs
ACE

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Forecast Issued May 2012

Forecast Period: June to November 2012

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval
ECMWF
# of named TCs
ACE

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Forecast Issued April 2012

Forecast Period: June to November 2012

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval
CSU
# of named TCs
10
±3.4
ACE
70
±53

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Forecast Issued August 2011

Forecast Period: August to November 2011

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval
CSU
# of named TCs
16
±2.3
ACE*
170
±36
IRI
# of named TCs
13.1
±3.7
ACE
125
±51

ECMWF

# of named TCs

14.5

±3.5

ACE
150

±70

* These forecast numbers are for the entire season, so they include the 4 systems that formed in the Atlantic prior to 1 August

OBSERVED

# of named TCs = 19      ACE = 111

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Forecast Issued June 2011

Forecast Period: June to November 2011

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval
CSU
# of named TCs
16
±3.7
ACE
160
±48

OBSERVED

# of named TCs = 19      ACE = 111

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Forecast Issued May 2011

Forecast Period: June to November 2011

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval
ECMWF
# of named TCs
14.4
±3.1
ACE
140
±60

OBSERVED

# of named TCs = 19      ACE = 111

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Forecast Issued April 2011

Forecast Period: June to November 2011

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval
CSU
# of named TCs
16
±3.4
ACE
160
±53
IRI
# of named TCs
11.7
±3.7
ACE
101.5
±51.1

OBSERVED

# of named TCs = 19      ACE = 111

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Issued December 2010

Forecast Period: June to November 2011

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval
CSU
# of named TCs
17
±4.4
ACE
165
±50

OBSERVED

# of named TCs = 19      ACE = 111

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Forecast Issued June 2010

Forecast Period: June to November 2010

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval
CSU
# of named TCs
18
±3.8
ACE
185
±39
NOAA
ACE
185.9
±50.3
IRI
# of named TCs
13.5
±4
ACE
128.5
±51
ECMWF
# of named TCs

22.3

±4.1

ACE

242

±100

OBSERVED

# of named TCs = 19     ACE = 146

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Forecast Issued May 2010

Forecast Period: June to November 2010

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval
ECMWF
# of named TCs
23
±4.6
ACE
280
±80

OBSERVED

# of named TCs = 19      ACE = 146

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Forecast Issued April 2010

Forecast Period: June to November 2010

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval
CSU
# of named TCs
15
±4
ACE
150
±39
IRI
# of named TCs
12.5
±3.7
ACE
120.8
±51.0

OBSERVED

# of named TCs = 19      ACE = 146

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Forecast Issued December 2009

Forecast Period: June to November 2010

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval
CSU
# of named TCs
13.5
±4.4
ACE
131
±50

OBSERVED

# of named TCs = 19      ACE = 146

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Forecast Issued August 2009

Forecast Period: August to November 2009

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval
CSU
# of named TCs
10
±3.3
ACE
80
±37
IRI
# of named TCs
11.4
ACE
97.6
ECMWF
# of named TCs
9.9
±3.3
ACE
99
±70
NOAA
ACE
85
±25

 

Obs Aug-Nov 09

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Forecast Issued June 2009

Forecast Period: June to November 2009

Source
Variable
Prediction
Confidence Interval
CSU
# of named TCs
11
±3.8
ACE
85
±39
NOAA
ACE
97.5
±32.5
IRI
# of named TCs
10.2
ACE
89.9
ECMWF
# of named TCs
8.1
±2.6
ACE
42.4
±21.2

Obs Atl Jun-Nov 09

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ACE - Accumulated Cyclone Energy

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IWTC-VI