Tropical Cyclone-Probabilistic Forecast Products (TC-PFP)

What is WMO Tropical Cyclone-Probabilistic Forecast Products (TC-PFP)?

This project was launched in response to recommendations from the 9th WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones in 2018 on the use of ensemble forecasting at operations. The workshop, held every four years and attended by forecasters, researchers, and academics, identified slower pull-through into operational forecast warnings and products of probabilistic guidance and uncertainty information that ensembles can provide (e.g., static cones of uncertainty of track forecasts, Titley et al. (2019) ) and recommended that an interdisciplinary approach be taken to address this issue. By implementing this project, we will coordinate across Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) and other forecast centers to identify best practice guidance for probabilistic tropical cyclone forecasts and foster Research-to-Operations transfer to provide more accurate and reliable tropical cyclone forecasts to users. Here is a one pager PDF about the project.

Project Main Goal:

Coordinate across RSMCs and other forecast centers to identify best practice guidance for probabilistic tropical cyclone forecasts.

Project Implementation:

This effort will be implemented in 3 phases, with an initial focus on Phase 1:

Work with forecast centers to identify best practices of a value-cycle approach to probabilistic tropical cyclone forecasts of TC formation and position.
Work with forecast centers to identify best practices of a value-cycle approach to probabilistic tropical cyclone related to forecasts of TC intensity and structure.
Work with forecast centers to identify best practices of a value-cycle approach to probabilistic tropical cyclone related to forecasts of TC-related rainfall and storm surge.

Project Objectives:

Identify RSMCs and forecast centers that might be interested in this effort.
Reach out to RSMCs and forecast centers learn more about their current efforts & future plans to produce probabilistic forecasts, their customers, their various forecast challenges, etc., and to gauge their interest in this project.
Plan a WMO-sponsored workshop that focusses on probabilistic TC impact forecasts (late spring/early summer) and invite interested forecast and NWP centers to participate.
Identify a writing team that includes workshop participants to begin writing best practice guidance for probabilistic TC forecasts (Phase 1 focus with some preliminary integration of Phases 2 and 3). TC-PFP will oversee the effort and bring the team together regularly from Aug 2021 – Sep 2022.
Present a project summary at the 2022 IWTC: Phase 1 (TC formation and position) overview, including preliminary highlights of Phase 2 and Phase 3.