Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts
In 2006, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) began a process to designate centres making global seasonal forecasts as WMO Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts (GPCs-LRF). This forms an integral part of the WMO Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS).
Through this designation process, GPCs-LRF adhere to certain well-defined standards, aiding the consistency and usability of:
- fixed forecast production cycles
- standard sets of forecast products
- WMO-defined verification standards (for retrospective forecasts).
A comprehensive set of standard verification measures has also been defined, and is known as the WMO Standard Verification System for Long-Range Forecasts (SVSLRF).
At minimum, the following are required from GPCs-LRF:
- Predictions for averages, accumulations, or frequencies over 1-month periods or longer (typically anomalies in 3-month-averaged quantities is the standard format for seasonal forecasts, and forecasts are usually expressed probabilistically)
- Lead time: between 0 and 4 months
- Issue frequency: monthly or at least quarterly
- Delivery: graphical images on GPC-LRF website and/or digital data for download
- Variables: 2m temperature, precipitation, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Mean Sea-Level Pressure (MSLP), 500hPa height, 850hPa temperature
- Long-term forecast skill assessments, using measures defined by the SVSLRF.
WMO Global Producing Centres for Long-Range Forecasts
WMO has officially designated 14 GPCs-LRF:
- Beijing: China Meteorological Administration (CMA) / Bejing Climate Center (BCC)
- Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies (CPTEC) / National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Brazil
- Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC)
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
- Exeter: Met Office, United Kingdom
- Melbourne: Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), Australia
- Montreal: Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC)
- Moscow: Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia
- Offenbach: Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)
- Pretoria: South African Weather Services (SAWS)
- Seoul: Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)
- Tokyo: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) / Tokyo Climate Centre (TCC)
- Toulouse: Météo-France
- Washington: Climate Prediction Center (CPC) / National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), United States of America
In addition to the institutions referenced above, WMO has also designated the following Lead Centres:
- WMO Lead Center for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-LRFMME) jointly coordinated by KMA and CPC/NOAA
- WMO Lead Center for Standard Verification System of Long-Range Forecasts (LC-SVSLRF) jointly coordinated by BOM and MSC
Other Major Centres Providing Global Seasonal Forecasts
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), USA
- Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center (APCC), Republic of Korea