Newsletter No. 4, August 2024
Newsletter Spotlight
Space Weather - Summary of May 2024 X-Class Event
The article below is a summary excerpt taken from “The Evolution and Impact of Active Region 13664”. To view in full, please visit:
Space weather is a global phenomenon with far-reaching implications for technological systems, human activities, and scientific understanding. Its significance lies in the potential to disrupt communication, navigation, and power systems that we rely so heavily upon in our modern society. An extreme space weather event can significantly impact the economy. It can pose health risks to astronauts as we explore space beyond the protective cloak of our magnetosphere.
During the first week of May 2024, a group of sunspots, designated as NOAA Active Region 13664 (AR3664) was identified as a substantial and complex sunspot group. The region produced several solar flares and Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which led to the onset of extreme geomagnetic storming conditions; the strongest since the Halloween Solar Storms of 2003. These storms caused widespread auroras, disruptions in satellite operations and communications, potential power grid issues, and increased radiation hazards for space missions and high-altitude flights.
The distorted magnetic field of what would become AR3664 formed on the far side of the Sun during the last week of April. Bright regions of concentrated magnetic field lines known as plage came into view on April 30, 2024, as the region rotated west. AR3664 in its entirety emerged from the East limb onto the visible disk on May 1, 2024, and was given its namesake by forecasters at the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).
For the two weeks AR3664 was visible it grew in size (Fig 1) and number of sunspots (Fig 2). The magnetic field continued to become more dynamic with areas of opposite polarity shearing and twisting around each other. This growth led to the most significant space weather events of Solar Cycle 25.
Figure 1:AR3664 Size
Figure 2: Number of Spots in AR3664
On May 2, after just one day of AR3664 being visible, it began producing attributable solar flares that could be seen in satellite imagery such as those on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and the National Space Administration’s (NASA) Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). One of the larger flares occurred on May 10 (Fig. 3).
 As AR3664 rotated toward the center of the solar disk around May 7-8th, it started producing frequent and strong flares (X-Class/R3 or greater on the NOAA scale). On May 8 a CME associated with two flares - M3.5 and X1.0 - started traveling towards Earth. At least four more earth-directed CMEs were observed before the end of day on May 9 that were associated with one M-Class flare and three X-Class flares. There were a total of eight Earth-directed CMEs from AR3664 that SWPC forecasters analyzed ahead of what would be a historic geomagnetic storm event over the weekend.
In preparation for the CME arrival, forecasters issued a rare Geomagnetic Storm Category G4 or Greater Predicted Watch on May 9 at 0952 UTC (Fig 4).
The impacts of the geomagnetic storm were felt worldwide.
Figure 4: Image of G4 Watch Text
- Satellites in orbit experienced increased drag, and communication systems, including GPS signals, faced disruptions due to the ionospheric disturbances.
- The induced currents posed risks to power grids, potentially leading to voltage instability and transformer damage. Power grid operators took preventive measures to mitigate these impacts.
- Increased levels of solar energetic particles posed radiation hazards to astronauts in space and high-altitude flights, requiring adjustments in flight paths and additional shielding measures.
- And of course, it resulted in spectacular auroral displays!
Some reported aviation impacts included:
- Airlines experienced HF frequency degradation affecting aircraft communications.
- U.S. and European flights rerouted farther south and changed altitudes to avoid radio disruptions, extending flight times.
- Wide Area Augmentation System used for precision landing and performance-based navigation was unavailable for approximately 15 hours
- Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) system experienced navigation and communications disruptions.
Active Region 3664 was a significant sunspot group on our nearest star that was associated with solar flares and geomagnetic disturbances that had global implications. The continuous monitoring and product issuance by forecasters at SWPC helped to mitigate these impacts through enhanced direct services support with partners and stakeholders. Their efforts ensured the resilience of critical infrastructure and services by providing actionable space weather information.
And finally, while there is no process to officially name a space weather storm, this particular event will be known as the "Gannon Storm" after Jenn Gannon. Dr. Jennifer Gannon was a leading international space weather physicist who left us in her prime in May 2024 just before this event.
Jenn’s professional work was her main cause in life, but more importantly, she valued the people in her field above all else. She believed in building up individuals, programs, and organizations, and her dreams were always centered around people rather than just scientific achievements. We lost a great scientist who made significant scientific contributions and dedicated her life to nurturing the future pipeline of our community. A naming ceremony will be held during the Space Weather Summit at the White House in Washington, D.C. this September.
For more information on this event, contact Briana Muhlestein, Senior Space Weather Forecaster at the US Space Weather Prediction Center at briana.muhlestein@noaa.gov
|
|
ET-AVI Webinar Recap
Submitted by ET-AVI WMO RA IV
The Expert Team for Services for Aviation (ET-AVI) recently held its fourth regional webinar at the end of June covering presentations on standards, hurricanes/tropical storms and satellite applications.
Key Presentations:
- Jorge Armoa, from the ICAO – SAM Office, presented on the new proposed Guide for the Preparation, Dissemination and Use of SIGMET Messages in the CAR/SAM Regions. This updated SIGMET guide is composed of three parts – Introduction, Responsibilities and Coordination and SIGMET information – along with 13 Appendices to cover regional examples and guidelines. States are invited to provide feedback; contact jarmoa@icao.int for details.
- Evelyn Quirós Badilla, an Inspector of Air Navigation Services (ANS) specializing in Aeronautical Meteorology and Coordinator of the Environmental Sustainability Commission of the Civil Aviation Authority in Costa Rica, presented a Guide for ANS MET Inspectors on Quality Management Systems for Air Navigation Weather Service Providers. This includes insights into the implementation of ISO:9001 and ICAO Annex 3 standards, client services, and metrology standards.
- John Cangiolosi, a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), provided an Overview of NHC Hurricane Forecast Operations and Products. He discussed the strengths and weaknesses of NHC products, forecast skill, timelines, and international coordination.
- Kathy-Ann Caesar and Chavez Pope from the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) presented an Overview and Synoptic Analysis of Tropical Storm Philippe, the 17th named storm of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. They explored meteorological conditions, challenges in track forecasting, interactions with Tropical Storm Rina, and impacts on Caribbean islands. It was such an interesting case, a collaborative 5-day workshop was organized by CIMH, NOAA, and CMO to study the storm. For more details and information on where to access the material from the workshop, check out the newsletter article below from Kathy-Ann.
- Amanda Terborg, a developmental meteorologist with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) stationed at the Aviation Weather Center (AWC), detailed Satellite Applications and Utility for Tropical Weather. Her presentation highlighted AWC forecaster products and effective satellite tools for identifying hazardous aviation weather. Please explore the following links from Amanda’s presentation for more info on the tools and where to access:
|
|
News You Can Use: Two-stage discontinuation of Technical Regulations (WMO-No. 49), Volume II, Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation
In April 2017, the Secretary-General of WMO and the Secretary General of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) convened a bilateral meeting. One of the discussion points pertained to efficiency and avoiding duplication of efforts within and across the sister agencies of the United Nations.
Recognizing that the Technical Regulations (WMO-No. 49), Volume II, Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation represents, to a great extent, is a reproduction of ICAO Annex 3 to the Convention on International Civil Aviation. It was proposed to consider discontinuing WMO-No. 49, Volume II while maintaining ICAO Annex 3 as the main regulatory publication for all providers and users.
For more information please visit: https://community.wmo.int/en/activity-areas/aviation/resources/tech-regs-v2-discontinuation
|
|
NOAA/WMO RA IV Workshop - An Interactive Analysis of Tropical Storm Philippe
Submitted by Kathy-Ann Caesar
Tropical Storm Philippe, the 17th storm of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season, proved to be one of the most challenging storms to forecast for in terms of both track and intensity. It also presented a perfect event to build a workshop around.
Figure 1: Tropical Storm Phillipe September 29th, 2023, centered just north of the Virgin Islands with down shear convection over the Eastern Caribbean. Courtesy NOAA/CIRA
The NOAA/WMO RA IV Workshop: An Interactive Analysis of Tropical Storm Philippe was held from 4-7 June 2024. A virtual workshop was hosted by the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) in collaboration with NOAA Satellite International Training Working Group (SITWG), the Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO) Headquarters Unit, with added support from the Météo-France Antilles-Guyana, the NCEP International Desk, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to conduct a review of Tropical Cyclone Philippe (from September 27 to October 04, 2023). This was the sixth in a series of CIMH’s workshops for regional forecasters engaged in the WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Programme in the Eastern Caribbean (SWFP-EC). This was also an opportunity to introduce procedures towards Early Warning for ALL (EW4ALL).
The objectives of the workshop were to:
Figure 2: Selected official track forecasts vs. the official best track. Courtesy U.S. NOAA/NWS/NHC.
The topics examined the evaluation of TS Philippe as it became one of the most difficult systems to forecast and was coined a ‘forecaster’s nemesis’. Philippe went through a series of interactions that rendered most forecast models and experienced forecasters alike baffled. Initially forecasted to be a major Hurricane, Philippe experienced moderate vertical shear, Fujiwara interaction with Tropical Storm Rina, and a weak steering current, eventually morphing into a severe weather event that produced over five hours of lightning, heavy showers and localized flooding across the Eastern Caribbean Islands. The storm also created a communication nightmare in terms of messaging to the public.
Topics ranged from storm diagnostics, storm tracking and intensity modeling, QPF rainfall forecasting, use of lightning observations in analyzing the storm, impact-based forecasting (IBF), flood mapping, landslide monitoring and heatwaves (a post-storm occurrence). Interactive participation was the other focus of the workshop. This was attained through forecasters being invited to present their experiences during the passage of Philippe, a round-table panel discussion with broadcasters and another with a hydrologist and marine meteorologist; and weather briefings from local forecasters.
Figure 3: A collage of screenshots from the various workshop presentations representing the Key Takeaways.
In the end, there were over 80 operational forecasters participating in the workshop, with approximately 60 attending each day. There were at least 35 speakers from 23 organizations presented during the workshop. The presentations and Zoom recordings are available on the CIMH’s Moodle.
Forecasters can access the presentations and watch the recordings on the CIMH eLearning platform (link here). Feedback on the workshop was very positive, including a general appreciation for the focused topic approach to this workshop, as well as the interactive agenda.
Heartfelt thanks must go to all the supporting agencies and the participants for making the workshop a great success. But Special thanks to the ‘Home Team’ including Steve Superczynski (NOAA) and Bonnie Acosta (NCEP) as Masters of Ceremony, José Galvez (NCEP) Chief forecaster and weather briefer; Kathy-Ann Caesar (CIMH) Host focal point, Haley Anderson (CMO), panel organizer, Rebecca Chewitt-Lucas (Moodle Expert) and workshop technical support; and Sherrie Morris, NOAA/ NESDIS, ‘the glue that holds us together’.
Figure 4: The "Home Team" at CIMH, Barbados. From left to right: Steve Supercynski (NOAA), Kathy-Ann Caesar (CIMH) Host focal point, Bonnie Acosta (NCEP), and Sherrie Morris, NOAA/NESDIS.
Ms. Kathy-Ann Lois Caesar is the Chief Meteorologist, Head of the Meteorology Section, and lecturer at the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) and is the co-chair of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Standing Committee on Aviation (SC-AVI) Expert Team on Education, Training, and Competencies (ET-ETC).
|
|
Status of QMS Implementation in CMO Member States
Submitted by Haley Anderson
On 1 December 2023, the WMO RA IV Aviation/SIGMET Workshop in San Jose, Costa Rica, provided a platform to discuss the current status of Quality Management Systems (QMS) implementation among the English-speaking Caribbean Meteorological Services, a topic of great importance for enhancing service quality and regulatory compliance in the region.
Background and Motivation
The drive to assess the status of QMS implementation among CMO Member States stemmed from discussions at the 2022 meetings of the Caribbean Meteorological Council in the Cayman Islands. These discussions highlighted uncertainties and challenges in QMS implementation, necessitating a comprehensive assessment to guide the development of a regional project aimed at facilitating ISO 9001:2015 certification for National Meteorological and Hydrometeorological Services (NMHS).
Methodology
To capture a clear picture of the QMS implementation landscape, an online survey was deployed, combining quantitative Likert-scale questions and qualitative short-answer/multiple-choice questions. This survey, informed by the work of the Aviation Expert Team and feedback from the ICAO, was designed to meticulously assess the baseline status of QMS implementation. All sixteen (16) CMO Member States participated, providing a 100% response rate.
Key Findings
The responses predominantly came from top management, reflecting a high level of commitment to QMS implementation. Most NMHSs have developed a Quality Manual and other documentation, with seven implementing ISO 9001 QMS, and five undergoing recent audits. However, one State has not attempted QMS implementation. In terms of capacity development, half of the respondents had completed QMS training courses in the past three years, with eight having quality auditors and trained staff. However, six reported no capacity in place.
Figure 1: Status of QMS Implementation in CMO Member States, effective 2023
Figure 2: Status of Capacity Development for QMS Implementation & Sustainability in CMO Member States, effective.National Standards Bodies and Civil Aviation Authorities were frequently cited as potential QMS resources, highlighting opportunities for regional collaboration. The majority lacked trained personnel and calibration equipment for quality meteorological measurements, with few reporting implemented calibration processes.
Figure 3: Status of Calibration & Verification Capacity in CMO Member States, effective 2023.
The baseline assessment revealed varying levels of QMS implementation, with notable strengths in Barbados and Montserrat, and significant weaknesses in calibration, supplier management, and internal audits across most Member States. Personnel availability, financial resources, and practical QMS skills were major challenges. Member States emphasized the need for training, capacity development, and regional coordination to support QMS efforts.
Recommendations
Short-term measures include mapping existing human resource capital and building additional capacity, establishing regional QMS implementation and audit teams, and conducting regional training for leadership and management skills. Long-term measures involve integrating QMS into NMHS annual budgets as recurrent expenditure and fostering regional and international partnerships to sustain QMS implementation.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while the region has made strides in QMS implementation, there is significant variation in success across Member States. Addressing identified weaknesses and leveraging regional resources and collaboration will be crucial for advancing QMS standards in the Caribbean.
For further information, please contact Haley Anderson at the Caribbean Meteorological Organization by email at handerson@cmo.org.tt or cmo.pdo@gmail.com, or by telephone at +1 868 622 4711.
Haley Anderson is the Project Development Officer for the Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO).
|
|
QMS and Calibration - The Sterling Field Support Center
Submitted by Kathryn Franc & Ashby Hawse
 The National Weather Service (NWS) Evaluation Branch (EB) Sterling Field Support Center (SFSC) is a NOAA-owned testing, evaluation, and operations support facility located on approximately 230 acres just northwest of Dulles International Airport in Loudoun County Virginia. The NWS SFSC operates under the authority of the Office of Observations - Surface and Upper Air Division and is managed through the Evaluation Branch led by Branch Chief Neal Dipasquale. The facilities’ daily operations are overseen by the Site Manager Ashby Hawse with over twenty-three years of operational experience.
The SFSC is responsible for systems operations support and site systems management activities and provides operations requirements for planned improvements to field systems. It provides support for Development Tests, System Tests, and Operational Tests and Evaluations, as well as deployment and direct field support for surface and upper air observations. It develops operating standards, procedures, and documentation; manages quality control of surface and upper air observations
This facility contains a unique variety of testing resources:
- High-speed large wind tunnel (6 knots -125 knots)
- Large environmental similitude chambers for Pressure, Temperature, and Relative Humidity
- Pressure, Temperature, Relative humidity calibration and testing laboratories
- 150 outdoor sensor test pads
These testing and calibration resources are used by the various NWS program areas for the calibration and testing of sensors and equipment. Additionally, SFSC operates a yearly calibration exchange program for the UA and ASOS programs supporting the calibration of 355 barometers utilized for NWS weather observations.  Outside entities, including foreign national meteorological and hydrological services, may request testing or calibration of equipment/sensors at SFSC within the laboratories, chambers, and outdoor sensor pad areas. Through all the sensor and equipment testing, calibrations, and field support the NWS SFSC is a critical and unique facility within NWS.
 The SFSC is a critical, one-of-a-kind facility for observational support and research, specializing in testing and evaluating the quality of weather observation instruments and observing systems. The facility staff is comprised of federal and contractor leaders in the fields of meteorology, engineering, and application. Staff supports the NWS testing and evaluation of Upper Air (UA), Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS), and Cooperative Observing Programs (COOP) equipment.
Additionally, the SFSC provides help desk support for all UA and COOP sites across the United States to support the NWS mission to provide a Weather-Ready Nation.
Ashby Hawse and Kathryn Franc are a part of the Evaluation Branch of the National Weather Service, within NOAA at the Department of Commerce. Ashby is the Site Manager for the Sterling Field Support Center. Mr. Hawse comes from the United States Airforce with over 23 years of providing mechanical and engineering service in both Civil and Aeronautical applications. Hawse has been with the NWS for over 23 years and as a key NWS employee, he has gained extensive knowledge in the evaluation of atmospheric measurements practices and applications that are integrated into the national network. Kathryn is the Laboratory and Quality Assurance Manager for the Sterling Field Support Center. Her training in environmental science and experience within various NWS areas allow her to provide prospective and guidance for testing, calibration, and evaluation work completed at the facility.
|
|
Feedback for ET-AVI
 We want to hear from you! What can ET-AVI do for you and your organization? If you have feedback to share; suggestions for activities related to services for aviation; newsletter articles or future webinar topics, please fill out this short questionnaire: |
|
| Archived Webinars and Newsletters
The RA-IV ET-AVI hosts two webinars and two newsletters each year covering aviation topics pertinent to our region - North America, Central America and the Caribbean. Below are links to past material.
June 2024 - Standards - Hurricanes/Tropical Storms - Satellite Applications
November 2023 5-day Aviation Workshop - SIGMETs - TAFs - QMS
July 2023 - Quality Management Systems (QMS)
December 2022 - AMDAR - Observing - Cost Recovery - IWXXM - International SIGMET Coordination
July 2022 - ICAO-NACC - QMS - WMO Aviation Moodle Training Portal - IWXXM - Relationship Building with Aviation Users - IDSS - Global Turbulence Product.
Past Newsletters - January 2023; August 2023; February 2024.
|
|
Reminders & Coming Events
Past Events:
 ICAO NACC Met Task Force - The second meeting of the North American, Central American and Caribbean Working Group (NACC/WG) Aeronautical Meteorology (MET) Task Force (TF) was held in Mexico City in February 2024.- AeroMetSci Webinars: Scientific and Technological Innovation in Observation and Forecast of Turbulence and Airframe Icing to Enable Service Delivery Transformation and Improve Aviation Safety - held online in December 2023
Upcoming Events:
|
|
Resources
WMO Regional Association IV (RA-IV) Website - Highlights all WMO activities for North America, Central America and the Caribbean (RA-IV)
WMO RA-IV ET-AVI Website - The official WMO website for the RA-IV Expert Team on Services for Aviation (ET-AVI). It includes the Terms of Reference (ToR) which steers the activities undertaken by our team.
WMO Services for Aviation (SC-AVI) Site - an overview of WMO resources and activities related to aviation and meteorology internationally.
WMO Aviation Training Moodle Site - This Moodle training portal is provided and maintained by the Expert Team on Education, Training, and Competency (ET-ETC) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Standing Committee on Services for Aviation (SC-AVI). The ET-ETC comprises aeronautical meteorology experts from around the world nominated by WMO Member States and Territories.
WMO Long-term Plan for Aeronautical Meteorology (2019) - The long-term plan for aeronautical meteorology (LTP-AeM) is intended to provide a framework upon which aeronautical meteorological service providers (AMSPs) of WMO Members in particular, and the broader meteorology and aviation communities in general, can plan a progressive transformation from a conventional “product-centric” approach to a modern “information-centric” approach to service provision for aviation through to 2030 and beyond.
|
|
|
|
|
