First Miniforum on Tropical Cyclone Outlook in the South West Indian Ocean (ONLINE)

Monday 16 November, 10-12 UTC

This Miniforum will address the seasonal forecast of the tropical cyclone activity in the South West Indian Ocean.
It is widely acknowledged that forecasting for the cyclone season ahead improves from November onwards. Therefore, this Miniforum is perfectly timed for the met community to share the latest forecast information with a wide variety of stakeholders.
This Miniforum, the first of the kind, is organized to meet the recommendation of the Ninth South West Indian Ocean Climate Outlook Forum (SWIOCOF-9, online, 14-17 September 2020) and the request of end-users. It is in alignment with the outcome of the Technical Meeting “Tropical Cyclone impact estimation for humanitarian preparedness and response: Joining the dots” organized during the 2020 Humanitarian Networks and Partnerships Week (HNPW) by WMO, the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (EC-JRC) and the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA).

Draft agenda

Opening remarks by Dr Johan Stander, Director, WMO Services Department

A look back at some of the last few seasons and impacts - helping put discussions into context - 15 min
Technical presentation – how is the Tropical Cyclone (TC) outlook developed – Methodology used – 15 min
TC outlook –– 30 min
- TC activity, geographical distribution, tracks
- What happened the last time a similar ‘seasonal setup’ was forecast (impact of La Nina)
- What can we say in respect of areas that may be more at risk of TC impacts
Update of the regional rainfall seasonal forecast with regard to the TC activity -10 min
Open discussion with partners, Q/A – 50 min

Documents

Post-session documents

Friday 29 January 2021 - Mid-season update

First Miniforum on Tropical Cyclone Outlook in the South West Indian Ocean (ONLINE)

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