Newsletter Issue 2/2024 (December 2024)

 

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Newsletter Issue 2/2024 (December 2024)


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Foreword by the Chair of the WMO Standing Committee on Services for Aviation (SC-AVI)

Henderson

Dear colleagues,

Welcome to this edition of the WMO Services for Aviation Newsletter. This issue comes at a pivotal time for our community, as we continue to advance our understanding and capabilities in aeronautical meteorology.

Last month I had the pleasure of attending the Aeronautical Meteorology Scientific Conference (AeroMetSci-2024) in Geneva. The event highlighted the immense value of bringing experts together to share their work, and foster networking and collaboration opportunities. Over the five days, numerous valuable insights were exchanged among the scientific community and industry stakeholders. These insights are already being utilised in the ongoing development of the second edition of WMO's Long-term Plan for Aeronautical Meteorology.

Throughout the week, we learned about the importance of reliable and trustworthy data, the value artificial intelligence brings to modelling meteorological parameters, and the relationship between aviation and the changing climate. Comparing emerging predictive technologies to traditional techniques allows us to understand where new systems add value. This comparative analysis is essential for integrating innovative approaches while maintaining the reliability of established methods.

Participants also highlighted the crucial role humans play in delivering meteorological services, particularly in assessing and communicating risk. It is essential that organisations continue to provide training to aeronautical meteorological personnel to maintain skills and competencies. Therefore, I am pleased that this edition of the Newsletter also includes a report on the recent Aviation Meteorology Training Seminar convened by the UK Met Office in collaboration with WMO and the South African Weather Service. Events like these are pivotal for capacity building within the regions.

This edition of the Newsletter showcases the extraordinary work being undertaken by the team and highlights the value of innovation and collaboration. The advancements we have made are a testament to the power of scientific research and international cooperation. I strongly believe that together, we can enhance aeronautical meteorological services and ensure a safer, more efficient, and sustainable future for aviation.

Warm regards,

Andrea Henderson  
Bureau of Meteorology, Australia  
Chair of WMO Standing Committee on Services for Aviation (SC-AVI)

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Charting a path on science for services through the Aeronautical Meteorology Scientific Conference 2024 (AeroMetSci-2024)

Submitted by Stéphanie Wigniolle, WMO Secretariat, in coordination with Piers Buchanan and Ping Cheung, Co-Chairs of the SC-AVI Expert Team on Weather and Climate Science for Aviation Applications (ET-WCS)

AeroMetSci-2024 group photo

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) convened, under the auspices of the Commission for Weather, Climate, Hydrological, Marine and Related Environmental Services and Applications (SERCOM), the Aeronautical Meteorology Scientific Conference (AeroMetSci-2024). The conference was held at the WMO Headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland from 21 to 25 October 2024.

The main objectives of the conference were to showcase scientific and technological advances in meteorological observations and forecasts, expand focus on the integration of meteorological information decision-support services into the global air traffic management system, and examine further the impacts of climate change and variability on aviation and the science to understand some of the aviation environmental issues. The conference programme was composed of three sessions, each addressing one of these objectives.

The theme of the conference was: “Aviation, weather and climate: scientific research and development for enhanced aeronautical meteorological services in a changing climate.” The conference comprised a blend of presentations, national and regional case studies and panel discussions, taking into account leading scientific/academic research and aviation industry best practices and developments. Poster sessions also took place throughout the week. Presentations made at the conference are now available under the conference website, for Session 1, Session 2 and Session 3.

The conference addressed a large range of topics, including recent advances and innovations in forecasting aviation weather hazards such as turbulence, icing and convection. The benefits from the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques in weather forecasting were amply demonstrated and discussed as well as the associated challenges that the aeronautical meteorology community has been facing with. One of the main challenges in leveraging AI in meteorology is a pervasive lack of availability of or access to aircraft-derived in-situ observations of meteorological parameters, which are essential for training the models. Collaborative efforts and data sharing among organizations and the aviation industry are considered vital to help close gaps in observational data acquisition and to improve the quality, accuracy and reliability of forecasts.

Building and maintaining strong relationships and mutual understandings between research institutes, meteorological services and aviation users are key to success for the implementation of fit-for-purpose, user-oriented and cost-effective services. As those services are becoming more contemporary information services within the system-wide information management (SWIM) environment of global air traffic management, the conference acknowledged that the role of forecasters would evolve over time, likely becoming more consultative in nature. It was then highlighted that, in order to support this evolution, education and training are essential for forecasters and aviation users, particularly in the communication of uncertainties and for managing or mitigating the effects of high-impact or extreme weather events.

The intense discussions about the effects of climate change on aviation weather hazards were testimonial of the growing interest of this community in the impact on their operations of the climate change. Climate change is perceived to be negatively affecting aviation operations already, through increased air traffic disruption due to high-impact or extreme weather events. Science can support the aviation industry to better understand the impacts of climate change, thereby helping to inform adaptation, mitigation and resilience strategies. Additionally, there is a desire to close gaps in scientific research and development regarding the impact of climate change for some weather hazards, or in certain areas of the world.

Last but not least, the aviation industry faces challenges and opportunities in mitigating its climate impact, including non-CO2 impacts such as contrail formation that can result in aviation-induced cirrus. Here again, collaboration among scientists, meteorologists and the aviation industry, especially engine and airframe manufacturers and airlines, was seen as essential for progressing the prediction of contrail formation.

Outputs of the conference will include a set of recommendations to guide domestic, regional and/or global strategies on scientific and technological advancement in support of meteorological service for international civil aviation. The proceedings of the conference will comprise these recommendations as well as extended abstracts of each presentation and summaries of panel discussions. It will be published in the first half of 2025, as a WMO Publication to ensure outreach to all interested stakeholders. An announcement on the publication will appear on the Services for Aviation homepage under 'Related News'.

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WMO and ICAO enhance cooperation in aeronautical meteorology and related fields

Submitted by Greg Brock, WMO Secretariat

WMO & ICAO logos

The Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Prof. Celeste Saulo, and the Secretary General of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), Mr Juan Carlos Salazar, recently signed an update to the agreement that strengthens the longstanding collaboration between the two organizations.

WMO and ICAO – both specialised agencies of the United Nations – have maintained formal working arrangements since 1954. After seventy years of productive cooperation, this latest update, formalized through a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), outlines the framework for continued coordination, cooperation and collaboration in aeronautical meteorology and other domains. These include the environmental impacts of aviation and the effects of climate change on aviation.

The updated working arrangements will enable both organizations to better serve the needs of WMO Members, ICAO Member States, and meteorological and aviation stakeholder communities across the public and private sectors.  

The working arrangements will be reviewed every five years and updated as necessary to ensure continued relevance and effectiveness. 

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Progression of an update to the Long-term Plan for Aeronautical Meteorology

Submitted by Kaspar Bucher-Studer and Andrea Henderson, Co-Leads of the Task Team on the Long-term Plan for Aeronautical Meteorology, in collaboration with Greg Brock, WMO Secretariat

TT-LTP-2024 writing workshop group photoIn 2019, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published a Long-term Plan for Aeronautical Meteorology (LTP-AeM) (AeM SERIES No. 5) to guide the transformation from a conventional “product-centric” approach to a modern “information-centric” approach in aviation meteorology through 2030 and beyond. This plan is complementary to the Global Air Navigation Plan (GANP) of the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO), thereby fostering synchronized developments in air traffic management and meteorological services. 

More recently, WMO, with the assistance of the Task Team on the Long-Term Plan for Aeronautical Meteorology (TT-LTP), has embarked on updating the LTP-AeM. The update focuses on evolving aeronautical meteorological service delivery, considering scientific and technological advances, climate change impacts, environmental sustainability, and the socio-economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

From 28 to 30 October 2024, WMO convened a writing workshop of TT-LTP at its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, to advance the development of the updated LTP-AeM. This workshop, held back-to-back with the WMO Aeronautical Meteorology Scientific Conference (AeroMetSci-2024) to reduce travel efforts and to be inspired from conference contributions, aimed to foster deeper discussions and more efficient collaboration compared to online interactions. The workshop included plenary sessions and breakout groups, where participants reviewed and wrote new content for the plan. 

The workshop’s success was highlighted by Ms. Andrea Henderson, Chair of SC-AVI and co-lead of TT-LTP, who noted the value of in-person interactions in re-energizing the team’s efforts. Over the coming year, TT-LTP will continue refining the plan, aiming to submit a final draft to the SC-AVI-4 meeting in November 2025 and the fourth session of the Services Commission (SERCOM-4) in October 2026. The target publication date for the updated LTP-AeM is 2027. 

The time remaining before submission is being used for linguistic clarifications and standardisations, as well as for adding a glossary, key messages and an executive summary, and where appropriate, to supplement the document with figures and illustrations to enhance readability. Additionally, a communication strategy will be developed for effective outreach, ensuring the plan’s awareness and implementation across the aeronautical meteorology community. 

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Enabling early warning services through international standards

Submitted by Greg Brock, WMO Secretariat

Early Warnings for allWMO’s Services Commission (SERCOM) will convene an extraordinary session in March 2025 (SERCOM-Ext. (2025)). The extraordinary session, which will convene exclusively in an online mode, will address two main topics: 
1) WMO Technical Regulations addressing early warning services; and 
2) the catalogue of hazardous weather events (CHE).

Both topics are of relevance to the United Nations Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative, which WMO is helping spearhead.

During the extraordinary session, WMO Members of SERCOM will be invited to review, discuss and decide-upon each topic with a view to then formulating recommendations for the consideration of WMO’s Executive Council in June and/or an extraordinary session of the World Meteorological Congress in October 2025. Information on SERCOM-Ext. (2025) and its outcomes will be available here

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UK Met Office, South African Weather Service and WMO partner to build capacity in aeronautical meteorology

Submitted by Greg Brock, WMO Secretariat

Aviation training group photo

In September/October 2024, the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO) in collaboration with WMO and the South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) conducted a week-long Aviation Meteorology Training Seminar in Pretoria, South Africa.

2024 was the first time that such training seminars had been convened in an in-person mode since before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. (In 2021 and 2022, the training seminars were conducted in an online mode only.)

Through a blend of theory and practical sessions, the 2024 training seminar covered a spectrum of aeronautical meteorology topics including the forecasting of severe convection, icing and turbulence, the issuance of SIGMET information, and personnel competency assessment.

More than 80 nominations were received from 40 countries across WMO Regional Associations I (Africa), II (Asia) and IV (Europe). From these nominations, the organizing committee shortlisted 25 participants from 25 countries, of which more than half are designated as least developing countries or small island developing States (LDC/SIDS) and around one-third of participants were female. Most participants were aeronautical meteorological forecasters working at aerodrome meteorological offices and meteorological watch offices. 

Making use of voluntary cooperation programme and other funds, WMO and the UK Met Office were able to provide financial support towards the travel and subsistence of many participants, especially those from LDC/SIDS countries.

The in-person training seminar was declared a great success, with participants giving it satisfaction score of 4.65 out of 5. A vast majority of participants were evidently very satisfied with the topics covered, the training resources provided, the mix of theoretical and practical sessions, and the group work activities that took place during the week.

WMO and the UK Met Office are now exploring the possibility to convene a similar in-person training seminar later in 2025 or in 2026. Information will appear in the news section of the WMO Services for Aviation website if/when details of the next training seminar are confirmed. 

WMO, UKMO & SAWS logos

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Hong Kong Observatory, WMO and ICAO partner to build capacity in aeronautical meteorology

Submitted by Danice Ng, Hong Kong Observatory and Greg Brock, WMO Secretariat

During 3 to 6 December 2024, the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) cooperated with the International Civil Aviation Organization Asia and Pacific Office (ICAO APAC) and organised an international workshop on "Aviation Meteorological Science and Service Development" under the Voluntary Cooperation Programme (VCP) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The workshop was the first activity of the Meteorological Training Centre for Belt and Road Countries newly established by the HKO. 

The four-day workshop covered extensive topics including the latest international developments in aviation weather services, artificial intelligence applications, system-wide information management (SWIM) and space weather. Besides lectures, the programme featured interactive sharing sessions. Participants also visited the Airport Meteorological Office and Integrated Airport Centre at the Hong Kong International Airport. 

The workshop attracted an overwhelming response with over 90 participants from more than 45 countries attending the workshop either online or in person. Participants spoke highly of the workshop, noting that the knowledge gained from the workshop would help enhance their aviation weather services. The workshop demonstrated HKO's commitment to advancing aviation meteorological services across the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.

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Results of survey on QMS implementation in WMO RA II (Asia)

Submitted by Christy Leung, Chair of RA II ET-AVI and Greg Brock, WMO Secretariat

Earlier this year, the Expert Team on Services for Aviation (ET-AVI) in WMO Regional Association II (Asia) conducted a survey among RA II Member States and Territories on the implementation of quality management systems (QMS) in aeronautical meteorological service provision. The survey yielded responses from 21 of 35 States/Territories in RA II (60% response rate). The full results of the survey are available here

The survey revealed that while a majority of States/Territories (14 out of 21 respondents) possess a fully implemented and certified QMS, gaps still remain among a minority. The survey responses shone light on the obstacles for achieving QMS certification, which included lack of human and financial resources and lack of infrastructure. 

Additionally, the survey sought to ascertain the status of implementation of competency assessment frameworks for aeronautical meteorological personnel (AMP), which has close association to quality management and the supply of high-quality products and services to aviation. In this regard, nearly 40% of respondents indicated that they do not yet possess a competency assessment framework for their AMP. The need for additional guidance and training in the implementation of a competency assessment framework was highlighted through respondents' feedback to the survey. 

In May 2024, ET-AVI in RA II conducted an online webinar to support those in need of implementation assistance. Other support and outreach may be considered.

It is worthwhile to note that WMO possesses extensive guidance on QMS and competency, through the following foremost publications:

In addition, supporting resources can also be found on the Services for Aviation Moodle training portal available here (free to register). 

To learn more about ET-AVI in RA II (Asia), please click here.

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Compendium of findings on effects of climate change on aviation hazards and analysis of impact to aviation operations

Submitted by Stéphanie Wigniolle, WMO Secretariat, in consultation with Piers Buchanan (Met Office, UK) and Ping Cheung (Hong Kong Observatory), Co-Chairs of ET-WCS

The environmental footprint of the aviation sector has been a well-known concern for some decades and tremendous efforts are ongoing to reduce it, for example through optimized flight trajectories that can reduce or prevent the formation of contrails, also called aviation-induced cirrus. However, the other side of the story is equally noteworthy. It is important to recognize that climate change, often manifesting through more frequent, more intense weather events, sometimes in locations that are different to the ‘norm’, also has a profound impact on the aviation industry. Increasingly frequent extreme weather events and more intense hazardous conditions such as tropical cyclones can disrupt the operations of airports and air spaces locally but with wider knock-on ‘network effects’ regionally and sometimes globally.

With WMO’s support, the aeronautical meteorology community is working towards strengthening its support to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and other aviation industry partners to help their efforts to adapt, mitigate, and build resilience, as a response to a changing climate. This can be, for example, through the supply of best available scientific advice on the effects of climate change and potential impacts on aviation, potentially downscaled to the regional, national or local level (if or when possible).

As a follow-up of the 2020 survey conducted by the Standing Committee on Services for Aviation (SC-AVI) on the impacts of climate change and variability on aviation and on the basis of its main results, the SC-AVI Expert Team on Weather and Climate Science for Aviation Applications (ET-WCS) has consolidated into a report the findings of the latest assessments on effects of climate change and variability on weather hazards and extreme events, and consequential impacts on aviation:

  • changes in turbulence location and intensity especially clear-air turbulence, and in icing location and intensity, both with impact on safety and efficiency;
  • changes in convection and associated hazards, both with impacts on flight safety;
  • changes in jet-stream location and strength, and in tropopause height and temperature, both with impacts on flight route efficiency;
  • effects of warmer air temperature with impacts on airport and aircraft operations, including degraded take-off performance;
  • changes in the frequency and intensity of high impact weather events such as tropical cyclones, sandstorms or dust storms;
  • changes in the fog formation and offset conditions, with impacts on terminal area operations and often wider knock-on ‘network effects’;
  • changes in freezing precipitation events location, and changes in low-level wind and wind shear occurrence or intensity, with impact on airport and aircraft operations; and
  • sea level rise with impacts on coastal airport infrastructure and operations.


This report will incorporate recent research and publications up to early 2024. Admittedly, some subjects have proven to be less documented than others. As an example, the effect of a changing climate on en-route icing has not been deeply analysed yet and, as a consequence, only limited literature on this topic is available. Another example is the effect of climate change on the tropopause on which more research is also needed.

On the other hand, a lot of scientific research and development has shown that some aviation weather hazards, such as en route turbulence and convection, have changed due to global warming and the impact of this change on aviation operations has been visible.

The 2024 edition of the report on findings on effects of climate change and potential impacts on aviation will soon be published by WMO as AeM-SERIES No. 9. ET-WCS intends to update the report on findings in the coming few years by expanding existing sections with new research results, including results downscaled to the regional level (if available) and/or adding sections for weather hazards not yet considered but for which interest of the aviation industry is growing.

SC-AVI is now considering opportunities for communicating and promoting the report on findings, as part of the scientific advice provided by WMO to support ICAO and other aviation stakeholders to adapt to a changing climate and mitigate its impact on aviation.

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Progression of Phase 2 of the Aviation Research and Development Project (AvRDP2) 

Submitted by Stéphanie Wigniolle, WMO Secretariat, in coordination with Dr Piers Buchanan and Dr Chris Davis, co-chairs of AvRDP2 SSC

AvRDP2

AvRDP2, the second phase (2021-2025) of an Aviation Research and Development Project of the World Weather Research Program (WWRP), led by the WMO Research Board (RB) with the support of SERCOM/SC-AVI focuses on scientific advancement and capacity development in observation, forecasting and warning of significant convection and associated hazards. It aims at demonstrating benefits of a gate-to-gate use of this advanced aeronautical meteorological information in the aviation operations environment. More information about AvRDP2 can be found here. The AvRDP2 Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) held its third meeting (AvRDP2-SSC-3), at the Met Office premises in Exeter, UK, on 16-18 September 2024. 

AvRDP2-SSC-3 was informed about the work progress over the two air routes chosen by the SSC at its first meeting in 2022, namely London to Johannesburg and Hong Kong to Singapore. In particular, the meeting acknowledged the progress made in preparation for the trials and experiments that were expected to start in Q4 2024 (HKG-SIN) and in Q2 2025 (LHR-JNB). For this purpose, SSC members have explored effective engagement with several categories of aviation users, including airlines and ATC.

The meeting also agreed on a detailed work plan for 2025, the last year of the project, that would include further final developments of the blended nowcast products for the HKG-SIN route and gathering of users’ feedback during the trials. Additionally, experts intend to complete the calibration of ensemble forecast systems outputs, in order to foster the use of probabilistic forecast information during the trials over the two routes, and to run route-specific verification and validation. For the LHR-JNB route experts will aim at performing a case study of the blending of two sources of nowcast products for an end-to-end nowcast prototype product. As a follow-up of the research study conducted by the Hong Kong University for Science and Technology (HKUST) on convection induced turbulence forecast in the framework of AvRDP2, it is expected that some of the newly developed Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) nowcast algorithms will be tested during the trial period and a preliminary analysis of results and user feedback will be conducted.

Results of these experiments will be presented at the final wrap-up AvRDP2 SSC meeting planned in Q4 2025. Project conclusions and recommendations will then be drafted, included some ideas of areas of investigation for a potential third phase of AvRDP.
 

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icao-logoNews from the ICAO Secretariat

Submitted by Jun Ryuzaki, Technical Officer, Meteorology, ICAO

The Fourteenth Air Navigation Conference (AN-Conf/14) was held from 26 August to 6 September 2024, at the ICAO Headquarters in Montreal, Canada, and was attended by 871 members and observers nominated by 110 States and 28 international organizations, as well as by advisers and others. The Conference discussed the strategy for further enhancement of safety and efficiency of global air navigation. 

According to the latest edition of ICAO Safety Report, statistics indicated that the year of 2023 was the safest year for international civil aviation in the last five years. However, it is worth noting that turbulence encounter contributed to the most of those reported aircraft accident/incident cases. Also taking into account multiple major incidents that occurred in early 2024, the Conference agreed to further strengthen turbulence safety, through global monitoring of turbulence encounters and investigation of ways to enhance clear air turbulence forecasting (AN-Conf/14 Recommendation 2.3/2 refers ). 

The ICAO Meteorology Panel (METP) will further look into these challenging tasks, in close coordination with the World Meteorological Organization.

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wmo-logoNews from the WMO Secretariat

Submitted by Greg Brock, Chief, Services for Aviation Section, WMO

As 2024 draws to a close, it’s an opportunity for the WMO Secretariat of the Services for Aviation Section to reflect on the achievements of the past 12 months…of which there have been many! Here are just a few of the highlights…

In March, during the third session of the Services Commission (SERCOM-3) in Bali, Indonesia, we helped deliver an informative side-event on the impacts on WMO Members of service delivery transformation in aeronautical meteorology. The well-attended side-event highlighted the challenges Members are already facing or that they may face in the coming years in the transition from traditional products to contemporary information services as well as the opportunities that such changes will or should offer. Click here to learn more.  

In June/July, we concluded an update to the working arrangements between WMO and ICAO.  A new Memorandum of Understanding will help further the coordination, cooperation and collaboration between the two organizations in aeronautical meteorology and other domains. The update of the working arrangements was a significant milestone that had been in development for a number of years. Click here to learn more.

And then, in October, we hosted the 2024 Aeronautical Meteorology Scientific Conference (AeroMetSci-2024) in Geneva, Switzerland. Approximately 150 people from around the world had the opportunity to come together to discuss the current and future scientific and technological advances in aeronautical meteorology, the integration of new meteorological services into aviation decision-support tools, and the impacts of climate change. Click here to learn more.  

These highlights illustrate just some of the many ways in which WMO is supporting its Members, their aeronautical meteorological service providers and the wider community, including with partners such as ICAO, at the global and regional levels.  

2025 is shaping-up to be another busy year too for the Services for Aviation Section, with support to several meetings and the ongoing activities of the Standing Committee on Services for Aviation (SC-AVI) and its subsidiary bodies plus numerous interactions with ICAO. 

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Upcoming WMO meetings and events

Note: All information given here is subject to change.

  • Second Meeting of the Advisory Group on Volcanic Science for Aviation Applications (AG-VSA-2), 4 to 6 February 2024, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
  • Extraordinary Session of the Services Commission (SERCOM-Ext. (2025)), 18 to 20 March 2025, Online.
  • Third Meeting of the Expert Team on Education, Training and Competency (ET-ETC-3), 24 to 26 March 2025, Montreal, Canada.
  • Seventy-Ninth Session of the Executive Council (EC-79), 16 to 20 June 2025, Geneva, Switzerland.
  • Extraordinary Session of the World Meteorological Congress (Cg-Ext. (2025)), 20 to 24 October 2025, Online. 
  • Fourth Meeting of the Standing Committee on Services for Aviation (SC-AVI-4), 4 to 6 November 2025, Geneva, Switzerland.

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Coming up next time...

In the next issue of the newsletter readers can look forward to:

  • Highlights of AG-VSA-2, ET-ETC-3, SERCOM-Ext. (2025) and EC-79
  • Expectations for Cg-Ext. (2025) and SC-AVI-4
  • Plans for the conclusion of AvRDP2 in 2025

...and more!

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