WMO AI Webinars

Operational subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of drought using ML Downscaling

Abstract: Drought has significant impacts on New Zealand’s export-driven economy. In 2022, the Ministry for Primary Industries, in partnership with NIWA, launched a 35-day drought forecast based on the New Zealand Drought Index (NZDI), to mitigate these impacts.
This system uses coarse-resolution forecast inputs and applies AI-based downscaling to capture New Zealand’s complex terrain, effectively refining forecasts from 50 km to 5 km resolution. The result is a tool that enables farmers and other primary producers to make more informed, timely decisions, helping to reduce financial losses and manage stock more effectively.
This talk will outline the development and operationalisation of this forecasting system, as well as its ongoing application, assessment and impact.

Integrating AI in Seamless Prediction from Nowcasting to Medium-Range Weather Forecast

Abstract: The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), serving as the WMO Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) for Nowcasting, has been actively developing and operationalizing artificial intelligence (AI) applications across the full spectrum of weather prediction timescales. This presentation outlines HKO's progressive integration of AI and machine learning (ML) techniques — from rainstorm nowcasting to medium-range forecasting — for advancing seamless weather prediction framework.

In the nowcasting domain, HKO has continuously enhanced deep learning precipitation forecast models, and has integrated a suite of different deep learning frameworks into the operational SWIRLS nowcasting system.  To extend nowcast lead time with broader geographical coverage for supporting WMO Members in southeast Asia, the AI nowcast based on simulated reflectivity of multispectral imagery of geostationary satellite has been implemented in the RSMC for Nowcasting website in December 2025.

AI techniques have been widely applied in enhancing short-range to medium-range forecasts.  Besides running several AI weather prediction (AIWP) models in-house and using available AIWP data products such as ECMWF AIFS, post-processing techniques have been used to enhance multi-model ensemble products with a view to enhancing location-specific forecasts in Hong Kong.  Evaluations demonstrate that the integration of post-processed forecasts from AIWPs with NWPs can further improve the automatic location-specific weather prediction out to 2 weeks ahead.

Together, these developments illustrate a paradigm shift towards an integrated AI-augmented seamless prediction chain. Ongoing developments - such as concept of “AI on AI” to further leverage benefits from AI nowcast and medium-range forecast models for improving high-impact weather predictions, as well as challenges ahead will be introduced.

Advancing Nowcasting with Deep Learning techniques (ANDeL) for West Africa

Abstract: Accurate short-term rainfall prediction (0–6 hours lead time) remains a critical challenge across much of Africa, where sparse observational networks and the limitations of conventional numerical weather prediction systems hinder the representation of localized convective processes. The Advancing Nowcasting with Deep Learning techniques (ANDeL) project leverages deep learning architectures (convolutional LSTM and attention-based models) to predict the spatio-temporal evolution of rainfall using multi-source datasets [satellite-derived precipitation (IMERG) and reanalysis (ERA5)]. Initial model training was conducted using IMERG to establish a robust baseline; however, due to its latency (~4 hours), current operational testing employs Rain-over-Africa (RoA) data, which provides low-latency, high spatio-temporal resolution inputs suitable for near-real-time applications. The framework incorporates transfer learning and adaptive fine-tuning to enable efficient deployment across diverse regions, while maintaining a strong operational focus on low-compute environments. 

WAS-NextGen: An Objective Multi-Method Framework for Seasonal Climate Forecasting in West Africa

Abstract: Seasonal climate forecasting in West Africa has traditionally relied on consensus-based methods that lack reproducibility and high-resolution detail. This presentation introduces WAS-NextGen, an automated, multi-method framework that integrates machine-learning-calibrated multi-model ensembles (SV–ML–CMME), statistical–dynamical CCA calibration, lagged-predictor components, and analogue-year methods. Implemented via the open-source Python package wass2s, the system ensures a fully reproducible workflow from data acquisition to probabilistic mapping.

Skilful long-lead nowcasting with NowAlpha in operations

Integration of AI/ML into operational weather and environmental forecasting systems at ECCC

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) is integrating AI/ML into operational weather and environmental forecasting systems. This presentation will summarize the progress on the AI-physics hybrid Global Deterministic Prediction System with Spectral Nudging (GDPS-SN) and describe its path to operationalisation. The presentation will also describe progress made on the AI-based PARADIS weather model and feature other AI/ML projects for weather and environmental forecasting currently underway at ECCC.