Fourth WMO International Workshop on Operational Climate Prediction
(Europe/Zurich:
29 June–1 July 2026)
Past event
Arusha, Tanzania
Document
- Concept note
- Agenda
- List of participants
- Abstract volume
- Biography of speakers
- Logistical information note
- Flyer
- Code of conduct
Session 1: Opening
- Objectives and expected outcomes of the workshop and recommendations of OCP-3, Caio Coelho (GPC CPTEC/ET-OCPS & ET-CIDS)
Session 2: Setting the scene
- Keynote presentation: Integrating climate, weather and water workflows from prediction to action: identifying and addressing priority gaps and key nodes across the services value chain, Roger Pulwarty (NOAA/SC-CLI)
- Keynote presentation: Why are climate predictions still difficult to use?, Arun Kumar (ET-OCPS)
- Keynote presentation: Artificial Intelligence in operational climate prediction: opportunities, limits and implementation, Willem Landman (University of Pretoria)
- Benefits of extended historical forcing for operational climate prediction, Eleanor O’Rourke (UK Met Office/CMIP-IPO) [video]
- Sub-seasonal forecasts of opportunity over India with machine learning, Andrew Robertson (CCSR/ET-CIDS)
Session 3: Operational infrastructure and mechanisms for climate prediction
Oral presentations
- WMO mechanism for global-regional-national cascading of operational climate prediction, Rupa Kumar Kolli (IMPO/ET-CIDS)
- Strengthening collaboration across the GPC–RCC–NMHS value chain, Endalkachew Bekele (NOAA)
- Advances in dynamical and ensemble prediction systems, Jeffrey Knight (UK Met Office/ET-OCPS)
- Towards an operational climate prediction system using ICON-XPP, Iuliia Polkova (DWD) [video]
- Verification of calibrated multi-model sub-seasonal precipitation predictions cascaded from global to regional scales, Caio Coelho (GPC CPTEC/ET-OCPS & ET-CIDS)
- Recent advances, including the multi-model systems development, implemented at:
- Break-out group discussion:
- Group A - Advancing sub-seasonal prediction and its integration within operational workflows, Facilitator: Andrew Robertson (CCSR/ET-CIDS) / Rapporteur: Valentina Khan (RCC Moscow/ET-CIDS)
- Group B – Enhancing operational seasonal prediction through multi-model ensemble information, verification and tailored climate services, Facilitator: Jun-Hyeok Son (KMA/ET-OCPS) / Rapporteur: Alison Cobb (ECMWF/ET-OCPS)
- Group C – Increasing the understanding and uptake of annual-to-decadal climate predictions by RCCs and NMHSs, Facilitator: Leon Hermanson (UK Met Office/ET-CIDS) / Rapporteur: Masilin Gudoshava (ICPAC/ET-OCPS)
Posters
- Seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts for Fiji’s sugar industry, Arieta Daphne Baleisolomone (FMS)
- Performance evaluation of CMIP6 climate models against station-based rainfall observations over the coastal zone of Tanzania, Lovina Peter Japheth (TMA)
- From forecast center to shoreline: a community co-design approach to weather information access on Lake Victoria, Arthur Mugema (EMEDO)
- The contribution of SOFF programme to strengthening operational climate prediction and climate services across timescales for early action and socio-economic development in Tanzania, Ladislaus Chang’a (TMA)
Session 4: Co-production of decision-relevant climate prediction services
Oral presentations
- Understanding co-production of climate services: principles, practical challenges and scaling across users and sectors, Jemimah Maina (KMD)
- The role of RCFs in generating and disseminating climate prediction to inform decision-making, challenges in conveying uncertainties and skills, Wazita Scott (RCC Caribbean)
- WISER PASS: Working in partnership across Africa to strengthen seasonal forecasting, Nicholas Savage (WISER project)
- New sector-specific climate prediction products and postprocessing procedures based on targeted teleconnections on the DWD climate predictions website, Andreas Paxian (DWD) [video: part 1, part 2]
- Advancing impact-based and user-oriented climate forecasting systems, Wassila Thiaw (NOAA)
- WMO Coordination Mechanism service delivery: success story in collaboration and co-design with UN and humanitarian agencies, including curation of WMO flagship products, Yi Wang (WMO)
- ESCAP’s tools & support: impact-based forecasting in Asia-Pacific, Leila Salarpour Goodarzi (UNESCAP)
- Supporting humanitarian early action: Start Network climate prediction needs, requirements and operational success stories, Ella Gerry (Start Network)
- Co-developing inclusive and child-centred climate services for resilience building, Phoebe Wafubwa Shikuku (Save the Children)
- Strengthening emergency preparedness for displacement contexts through meteorological information: opportunities, challenges, and operational impact, Asuka Imai (UNHCR)
- From forecasts to action: interpreting and applying climate information through provider-user collaboration on child undernutrition in Guatemala, Ángel G. Muñoz (WGSIP)
- Break-out group discussion:
- Group A – Embedding co-production concept in NMHS operations, Facilitator: John Mutua (ILRI) / Rapporteur: Vaileth Masaba (TMA)
- Group B – Improving stakeholder interaction at national, regional and global scales, Facilitator: Simon McGree (BOM/ET-CIDS) / Rapporteur: Jemimah Maina (KMD/ET-CIDS)
- Group C – Approaches to deal with uncertainty across prediction time and space scales, Facilitator: Ángel G. Muñoz (WGSIP) / Rapporteur: Sarah Osima (TMA)
Posters
- Climate-sensitive sector bulletins in the Pacific Islands: production methods and practices, Simon McGree (BOM)
- MalaClim climate-based malaria Early Warning System for North Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands, Martin Tugumana (SIMS)
- From climate forecasts to farm action: a co-production approach to strengthening agricultural resilience in Tanzania, Mponda Malozo (Norges Vel Tanzania)
- Translating climate predictions into measured action, Boyd J. Mackenzie (WSO)
- WMO Coordination Mechanism service delivery: success story in collaboration and co-design with UN and humanitarian agencies, including curation of WMO flagship products, Yi Wang (WMO)
- Bridging long-term climate information and sectoral decision-making in East Africa, John Mutua (ILRI)
- From prediction to action: co-producing decision-relevant climate services through multi-stakeholder engagement in the Greater Horn of Africa, Collison Lore (ICPAC)
- Beyond forecasting accuracy: how localised Early Warning Systems drive climate adaptation behaviour in rural Tanzania, Vitus Tondelo Gungulundi (Shahidi wa Maji)
- Robustness of climate information for societal decision-making: a framework across context, attributes, ethics, values & transparency, literacy, Genito Amos Maure (WCRP/RifS)
- Climate-informed malaria preparedness in Tanzania: co-designing a national climate–health decision support framework, Esther Dorice Respick (Inuka Africa)
Session 5: Leveraging Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning to produce and deliver decision-oriented climate prediction services
Oral presentations
- AI and ML for operational climate prediction: applications in production and delivery and associated data requirements, Bo Lu (CMA)
- AI for sub-seasonal forecasting at ECMWF, Matthieu Chevallier (ECMWF/ET-OCPS)
- Enhancing AI and dynamical sub-seasonal forecasts with probabilistic bias correction, Jonathan Weyn (Microsoft)
- Leveraging AI for forecasting heat stress in the Indian State of Karnataka, Ravi Nanjundiah (IISc)
- Getting ahead of extreme heat in communities hosting forcibly displaced people: early results from a machine learning approach for local-scale extreme heat forecasting in data-sparse regions, Patrick Kinyua (ACMAD)
- Generative AI model for probabilistic 6-hourly precipitation prediction, Godfrey Rwamahe Mujuni (Department of Meteorological Services - Uganda)
- Break-out group discussion:
- Group A – Leveraging AI/ML for downscaling in climate prediction, Facilitator: Shruti Nath (AfriClimate AI) / Rapporteur: Mussa Ngosha (TAFIRI)
- Group B – AI for climate information synthesis and communication, Facilitator: Masilin Gudoshava (ICPAC/ET-OCPS) / Rapporteur: Millah Mng’ong’o (TMA)
- Group C – AI-based climate predictions towards operations, Facilitator: Matthieu Chevallier (ECMWF/ET-OCPS) / Rapporteur: Peter Mugisha Nestory (TMA)
Posters
- Evaluation of high-resolution HCLIM surface wind simulations over Tanzanian coastal and offshore waters using ASCAT observations and ERA5 reanalysis, Mussa Ngosha (TAFIRI)
- Operational utility of AI NWP forecasts in predicting African rainfall across multiple satellite products, Shruti Nath (AfriClimate AI/University of Oxford)
- Artificial Intelligence for climate services in Eastern Africa: progress, opportunities, and challenges, Masilin Gudoshava (ICPAC)
Session 6: Closing
- Recommendations and way forward, Nicola Golding (UK Met Office/ET-CIDS) & Caio Coelho (CPTEC/ET-OCPS/ET-CIDS)
Side events
- Concept notes:
- Early Warnings for All