Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Probabilistic Forecasts
This online workshop aims to bring together researchers, operational forecasters, and practitioners to advance the understanding and good practices of probabilistic forecasting of tropical cyclones. Over three days, with 2-hr sessions each day, participants will learn about some of the current practices, share experiences and identify existing gaps and challenges, including how existing products can support both research and decision-making, based on end-user needs. It will also define priority areas for future development, with particular focus on emerging opportunities in artificial intelligence, and also forward-looking recommendations on how communication of probabilistic products can address user needs. There will be plenty of discussion time, with planned breakout sessions on days 2 and 3.
| Day 1 | ||
Time | Title | Speaker |
12:30 – 12:40hs | Welcome and setting the scene | Hongyan Zhu (BoM) / Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay (IISER) |
12:40 – 13:10hs | Overview of the current state of probabilistic TC forecasting | Alan Brammer (CIRA/CSU) / Helen Titley (UK Met Office) |
13:10 – 13:20hs | Q&A | |
13:20 – 13:40hs | Overview of IWTC | Rob Rogers (Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center) |
13:40 – 14:00hs | Keynote #3 | TBC |
14:00 – 14:30hs | Q&A and Discussion | |
Day 2 | ||
Time | Title | Speaker |
12:30 – 12:50hs | Probabilistic TC Products: How do they support decision making? | James Ashley (Bureau of Meteorology) |
12:50 – 13:10hs | Challenges in working with stakeholders | Jehan Panti (PAGASA) |
13:10 – 13:30hs | Integrating user feedback to guide probabilistic weather forecast communication | Robert Prestley (NSF NCAR) |
13:30 – 14:15hs | Breakout groups | |
14:15 – 14:30hs | Plenary discussion | |
Day 3 | ||
Time | Title | Speaker |
12:30 – 12:50hs | Applications of AI Technologies in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and Future Perspectives | Munehiko Yamaguchi (JMA) |
12:50 – 13:10hs | Probabilistic TC Guidance and Forecasts at NHC | Wallace Hogsett (NOAA) |
13:10 – 13:30hs | Keynote #3 | TBC |
13:30 – 14:15hs | Breakout groups | |
14:15 – 14:30hs | Plenary discussion |