Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Probabilistic Forecast

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(Europe/London: 12–14 May 2026)

This online workshop aims to bring together researchers, operational forecasters, and practitioners to advance the understanding and good practices of probabilistic forecasting of tropical cyclones. Over three days, with 2-hr sessions each day, participants will learn about some of the current practices, share experiences and identify existing gaps and challenges, including how existing products can support both research and decision-making, based on end-user needs. It will also define priority areas for future development, with particular focus on emerging opportunities in artificial intelligence, and also forward-looking recommendations on how communication of probabilistic products can address user needs. There will be plenty of discussion time, with planned breakout sessions on days 2 and 3. 

Day 1   
 
Time 
Title 
Speaker 
12:30 – 12:40hs 
Welcome and setting the scene 
Hongyan Zhu (BoM) / Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay (IISER) 
12:40 – 13:10hs 
Current state of probabilistic TC forecasting, based on TC-PFP Phase 2-3 survey results 
Alan Brammer (NOAA) / Helen Titley (UK Met Office) 
13:10 – 13:20hs 
Q&A 
 
13:20 – 13:40hs 
Overview of IWTC 
Rob Rogers (Asia-Pacific Typhoon Collaborative Research Center) 
13:40 – 14:00hs 
Keynote #3 
TBC 
14:00 – 14:30hs 
Q&A and Discussion 
 
 
  
Day 2 
  
 
Time 
Title 
Speaker 
12:30 – 12:50hs 
Probabilistic TC Products: How do they support decision making? 
James Ashley (Bureau of Meteorology)
12:50 – 13:10hs 
Challenges in working with stakeholders 
Jehan Panti (PAGASA) 
13:10 – 13:30hs 
Communicating probabilistic forecasts 
Robert Prestley (UCAR) 
13:30 – 14:15hs 
Breakout groups 
 
14:15 – 14:30hs 
Plenary discussion 
 
 
  
Day 3 
  
 
Time 
Title 
Speaker 
12:30 – 12:50hs 
Applications of AI Technologies in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and Future Perspectives
Munehiko Yamaguchi (JMA) 
12:50 – 13:10hs 
Probabilistic TC Guidance and Forecasts at NHC 
Wallace Hogsett (NOAA) 
13:10 – 13:30hs 
Keynote #3 
TBC 
13:30 – 14:15hs 
Breakout groups 
 
14:15 – 14:30hs 
Plenary discussion 
 
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For any queries, please contact: avazcaltabiano@wmo.int