Second Miniforum on Tropical Cyclone Outlook in the South West Indian Ocean

Thursday 28 October, 10-12 UTC, Interpretation in French available.

This Second Miniforum, jointly organized by WMO Regional Center for Tropical Cyclones La Réunion (France), the Indian Ocean Regional Intervention Platform (PIROI) and WMO, will address the seasonal forecast of the tropical cyclone activity in the South West Indian Ocean. It is widely acknowledged that forecasting for the cyclone season ahead improves from November onwards. Therefore, this Miniforum is perfectly timed for the met community to share the latest forecast information with a wide variety of stakeholders.
The Second Miniforum is part of PIROI's regional meeting to prepare the cyclone season, organized on 27 and 28 October. After the second Miniforum, PIROI will host three sessions (15 mins each) on cyclone sensitization, training and information and communication. These are open to all and you are welcome to attend. You can find more information on the PIROI regional disaster management meeting here.

On the SWIOCOF website, you will find the SWIOCOF-10 (20-23 September 2021) statements in English and French.

Draft agenda

Opening remarks 

  1. Tropical cyclone climatology and interannual variability. A look back at some of the last few seasons and impacts - helping put discussions into context - 20 min 
  2. Technical presentation – how is the Tropical Cyclone (TC) outlook developed – Methodology used – 10 min 
  3. TC outlook –– 20 min 
    1. TC activity, geographical distribution, tracks - What happened the last time a similar ‘seasonal setup’ was forecast
    2. What can we say in respect of areas that may be more at risk of TC impacts 
  4. Update of the regional rainfall seasonal forecast with regard to the TC activity -10 min 
  5. Open discussion with partners, Q/A – 50 min 



Background information

This Second miniforum is organized following the success of the first one, organized on 16 November 2020. For the record, the First Miniforum was organized to meet the recommendation of the Ninth South West Indian Ocean Climate Outlook Forum (SWIOCOF-9, online, 14-17 September 2020) and the request of end-users. It is in alignment with the outcome of the Technical Meeting “Tropical Cyclone impact estimation for humanitarian preparedness and response: Joining the dots” organized during the 2020 Humanitarian Networks and Partnerships Week (HNPW) by WMO, the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (EC-JRC) and the United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA).